BOSTON (CN) — Tens of millions of Americans are planning to vote by mail this November, but many election officials and experts are leery of putting their faith in absentee ballots, systems that have been around for years but have proved error-prone for even a tiny number of votes.
“We’re not ready for this,” said Edward Foley, a professor at Ohio State University who has written several books on election law. “I’m very worried. I guarantee you we’ll have problems.”
Lengthy delays as well as enormous numbers of inaccuracies, rejected ballots and disputes are just a few of the issues expected to arise. In many state and local elections, it is all but certain that winners will not be declared for weeks and only after litigation.
As for the White House race, former Vice President Joe Biden has already hired 600 lawyers in anticipation of voting disputes all over the country.
“We are opening ourselves up to post-election events that we have never seen before, and that could be confrontational, violent or controversial at the least,” said Charles Stewart, director of MIT election data and science lab. “Buckle in.”
A lot of people — including President Trump — have suggested that mail-in ballots are rife with potential for fraud. But the biggest problem isn’t fraud; it’s simply the inability of an antiquated system to cope with a massive and unprecedented number of voters.
Absentee ballots were originally designed for a small number of people who were physically unable to get to the polls; to qualify, these people usually had to prove absence or disability. But 34 states and the District of Columbia now allow “no excuse” absentee balloting, which means that anyone can vote by mail. In other states, the pandemic may qualify as an excuse.
All elections are now conducted entirely by mail in the relatively small states of Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington. Those states switched over to the mail-in system deliberately, however, and with lots of preparation. In the rest of the country, a minor ancillary process designed for a few scattered votes could now be overwhelmed in the middle of a crisis.
Americans are already worried. A recent Pew Research poll showed that only 14% of Americans — 20% of Republicans and only 9% of Democrats — are very confident that the November election will be conducted accurately. Another 45% said they were “somewhat” confident, and more than 40% had no confidence that the system will work properly.
The first — and most minor — problem that the public will notice on Election Day is that they probably won’t find out all the results that night.
Mail-in ballots take a long time to process because they can’t simply be tabulated on a machine or fed into a scanner. They have to be opened and go through a verification process that typically includes manually checking the signature on the envelope against a signature on file in the election office, among other things.
In New York City, the state’s primary was held on June 23 and a month later one congressional race was still undecided as local officials struggled to cope with processing more than 65,000 mail-in votes.
Some 1.5 million Pennsylvanians mailed in votes for the state’s June 2 primary, and it took days to tabulate the results. The delays will likely be much greater in November because far more people typically vote in general elections than in primaries.
“Voters should be prepared with the new reality that Pennsylvania's results are probably not going to be known on election night,” Nick Custudio, deputy city commissioner of Philadelphia, told CBS.