War fears hang over Ukraine as Russia spars with NATO

(CN) — Is a war about to break out in Ukraine?

It's a question ringing out in Europe with increasing urgency as tensions build between Russia and NATO-backed Ukraine despite the approach of winter.

For the past three weeks, the conflict has escalated dangerously after Russia sent more than 90,000 troops to the Ukrainian border, a move causing alarm bells to ring in Kyiv and the NATO alliance. Ukraine warned of an imminent invasion, the second such warning this year after a similar buildup took place in April.

For its part, Russia has accused NATO of arming Ukraine in violation of a ceasefire deal meant to stop the seven-year conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia also appears to be responding to attacks, including a strike by a drone sold to Ukraine by NATO member Turkey, against pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is stoking tensions too by pushing to become a NATO member and, despite campaign pledges to seek an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, vowing to retake Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and the breakaway eastern regions. Zelensky is also accused of disregarding terms laid out in the ceasefire deal struck in 2015, the so-called Minsk II agreement, that stipulated allowing Donbas to gain political autonomy. More than 14,000 people have been killed in the Donbas conflict and about 1.5 million people have been displaced.

The United States and its NATO allies are warning the Kremlin of severe consequences if it attacks Ukraine. NATO foreign ministers, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, are meeting in Latvia to consider their options.

“Today, we can no longer take our peace and security for granted,” said Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, on Tuesday. “The Russian regime is aggressive abroad and oppressive at home. Its military buildup on Ukraine’s borders is of concern.”

The Kremlin denies any intention to invade Ukraine and many experts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin won't try such a reckless move, one that could lead to a prolonged and bloody conflict and leave Russia even more shunned economically and politically.

Still, some analysts wonder if Putin has reached the conclusion that Russia has no option but to move against Ukraine militarily to stop NATO from building military infrastructure in Ukraine and incorporate it into the military alliance.

The Biden administration is throwing its support behind Ukraine. In September, President Joe Biden hosted Zelensky at the White House and said the U.S. firmly stands behind Ukraine.

In October, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv to show American support. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with about $2.5 billion to arm itself since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 following the overthrow of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.

Earlier this month, Blinken brought Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to Washington and signed the U.S.-Ukraine Charter for Strategic Partnership, pledging an “ironclad commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

This year, NATO has stepped up its activities in defense of Ukraine. The U.S. has sent three warships on drills into the Black Sea, deployed bombers close to Russia's borders and given two U.S. Coast Guard patrol boats over to the Ukrainian navy. The Biden administration has talked about providing Kyiv with military advisers and the United Kingdom has promised to send 600 special forces if war breaks out, according to news reports. In the meantime, Ukraine is being supplied with anti-tank, anti-armor missiles and mortars and military drones from Turkey.

For the Kremlin, NATO involvement in Ukraine is viewed with deep concern and as an incursion into Russia's “sphere of influence.” Putin recently warned NATO against crossing “red lines” in Ukraine.

The Kremlin accuses the West of orchestrating the Ukrainian uprising that expelled then-President Viktor Yanukovych and brought in a pro-Western government in 2014.

Since coming to power in 1999, Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he considers Ukraine to be part of a greater Russia. He recently penned an essay in which he said the people of Ukraine and Russia are united by culture and history.

Now, eight years after Russia seized Crimea, the fear is that Putin may see the risk of military action against Ukraine as worth it, calculating that it is highly unlikely that the European Union and U.S. would send troops to defend Ukraine and that Russia must strike now to achieve its goals.

Russia could try to justify military action by asserting that it is providing humanitarian aid to Donbas, which is suffering from an economic blockade. Also, Russia accuses Ukraine of cutting off critical water supplies to Crimea and it may want to push Kyiv on that issue too.

To prevent Russian escalation, some are calling for a resumption of peace talks and a return to commitments made under the Minsk II agreement. For Ukraine, the ceasefire deal handed Russia a victory and it is seen as allowing Moscow to exert control over Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU.

“Moscow’s current military buildup has been accompanied by dramatically tougher rhetoric in recent months, suggesting that this time is different,” said Samuel Charap, a political scientist with the RAND Corporation, a U.S. think tank, in a recent analysis. “President Vladimir Putin may believe Ukraine is at an inflection point and that it’s time to up the ante.”

To avoid war, Charap said the U.S. should consider changing tactics and “accept the unsatisfying reality that it will likely not be able to coerce Putin to de-escalate if he is determined to act. America’s leverage is limited.”

He said the White House should press Kyiv to take “visible steps” to carry out parts of the Minsk II deal and “put the onus on Moscow to deescalate, pull its forces back from the border and return to the negotiating table.”

Others are calling for a more aggressive approach and say Russia will only be deterred by the West continuing to arm Ukraine.

“Western countries should accelerate the supply of defensive weapons systems to Ukraine,” said Ian Bond, the director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, in a commentary. “If Western nations want to deter Russia, the most effective step that they could take, but also the hardest politically, would be to deploy some Western forces near the front line, if requested by Ukraine.”

He said the West needs to see the future of Ukraine as crucial to the future of the EU. He said it would be a disaster for the EU if Russia were allowed to take over Ukraine. He said such a scenario would give Russia dominance of the Black Sea, bring Russian forces closer to the EU's borders and undermine American promises of its “unwavering commitment” to Ukraine.

“Russian commentators have done a good job over many years in making the case that Ukraine is of existential importance to Moscow,” Bond said. “But Ukraine’s survival as an independent, democratic state is just as vital to the West, and especially to Europeans.”

Despite the rising tensions and tough rhetoric, war is unlikely, according to many experts.

Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group political consultancy firm, wrote in an analysis for Time magazine that a Russian invasion is improbable, even though Ukraine would not be able to defeat the Russian army and NATO wouldn't join the fight.

“Heavy Russian casualties and the financial costs of holding hostile territory are too politically expensive for a Russian President who isn’t as popular as he used to be,” Bremmer said. “The risk of war remains low, but no one will relax until those Russian soldiers step back.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

Categories / Government, International, Politics

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War fears hang over Ukraine as Russia spars with NATO

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