Virginia poised to elect state's first female governor

RICHMOND, Va. (CN) — Virginia voters will make state history in one week when they determine who Virginia’s first female governor will be.

On Nov. 4, Virginians will elect either former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and current Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Both candidates would make state history, but if Earle-Sears is elected, she would become the first Black female governor in the nation’s history.

Pocketbook issues will be at the forefront of voters’ minds as they cast their votes for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and all 100 seats of the House of Delegates, Democratic Party of Charlottesville co-chair Nancy Damon predicted.

Polling released Oct. 26 by the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University showed issues like curbing illegal immigration, cost of living and crime are significant to Virginia Republicans, while state Democrats are concerned with threats to democracy, health care and inflation.

Jesse Richman, a political science professor at Old Dominion University, said the delegate races will be worth watching.

“At the gubernatorial level, things are shaped a lot by the specific personalities and messages of the candidates,” Richman said. “At the House of Delegates level, except in the most competitive races for the most well-known delegates, there’s a strong association, and stronger than you see at the governor’s level, with the sort of nationwide party vote trends.”

Democrats in the state legislature called a special session on Oct. 27 to consider congressional redistricting, following similar efforts by Republicans in Texas and North Carolina.

Richard Meagher, a professor and political podcast host from Randolph-Macon University, called the special session a destabilizing event. State Republicans have called the session a clear example of gerrymandering.

“It’s just it’s a little too rushed,” Meagher said of the effort. “I just don’t know that voters are going to be able to process it clearly, and so that’s going to make it a little bit easier for Republicans to criticize it.”

Beyond the historical feats, the Virginia election presents the nation with an opportunity to gauge how the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term is performing.

Spanberger devoted significant time on the campaign trail criticizing Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs and rising inflation, and attacking the firing of thousands of Virginia-based federal workers.

Earle-Sears, meanwhile, has supported the president through the election. Earle-Sears has copied a page from Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin — once considered a vice-presidential candidate for Trump — in calling the Democrats’ response an overreaction to an effort to curb government waste.

Early voting turnout surpassed 2021 numbers with over 900,000 voters already casting their ballots.

Governor 

The gubernatorial election pits former CIA-employee-turned-politician Spanbeger against Earle-Sears, a business owner and former U.S. Marine who has served stints as a state delegate and lieutenant governor.

Richman described Spanberger as a moderate who benefits from the commonwealth’s general distrust of Trump. Trump garnered 46% of Virginia voters’ support, compared to nearly 52% for Kamala Harris in 2024.

“Donald Trump isn’t particularly popular in the state of Virginia,” Richman said in an interview. “That provides a kind of tailwind, you can say, for any Democrats in this particular year.”

Meagher, the professor and podcast host, described Earle-Sears’ strength as her ability to connect with voters she meets.

“Sears’ strength has always been her retail politicking,” Meagher said in an interview. “This is somebody who’s just a really, I think, charismatic person, and the contrast with Spanberger is really clear, because Spanberger is a policy wonk, like a technocrat person, like she really problem solves, and she likes to bring people together, and that, you know, is certainly less exciting than Earle-Sears in terms of her approach to politics.”

Spanberger enjoyed a healthy lead in polls conducted throughout the summer and early fall, but the gap has narrowed in the weeks leading up to the election. The Wason Center poll shows Spanberger with a seven-point lead.

According to data collected by the Virginia Public Access Project through Oct. 23, Earle-Sears had raised $35 million. Spanberger, meanwhile, raised $65 million.

Spanberger’s most prominent donors include the Democratic Governors Association, the state Democratic party, Virginia League of Conservation Voters and VoteVets. Earle-Sears’s largest donors are the Republican Governors’ Association Right Direction PAC, BET co-founder Robert L. Johnson and billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers brokerage firm Thomas Peterffy.

Spanberger has campaigned on protecting abortion access, supporting public schools, lowering medication and coverage costs and increasing housing availability.

Earle-Sears, a native of Jamaica, has focused on reducing the cost of living by cutting taxes, reducing government waste and removing regulations. Earle-Sears also focuses on protecting Virginia’s right-to-work policy and preventing transgender athletes from participating on the teams of their choosing.

Both candidates have promised to eliminate Virginia’s car tax, an annual tax based on the assessed value of the individual taxpayer’s vehicle.

Attorney General 

For the role of top cop, Virginians will choose between Republican incumbent Jason Miyares and Democratic challenger and former delegate Jay Jones.

Jones initially led in polling, but the race was flipped on its head in early October, after the National Review leaked text messages from 2022 between Jones and a Republican state lawmaker colleague.

Jones, who has admitted to sending the text, told Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner that if he had a gun with two bullets and he was with Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot and then-Republican Speaker of the House of Delegates Todd Gilbert, he would shoot Gilbert in the head twice. Jones went on to say he hoped Gilbert’s kids would die in their mother’s arms.

The Wason Center has Jones leading by one point after leading by six points in early October. Miyares has raised over $10 million more than Jones, with his largest donors being the Republican Attorneys General Association and Dominion Energy.

Richman suggested that voters may split their tickets.

“It seems that some of the public is compartmentalizing this more or less as a Jay Jones issue and maybe not shifting wholesale away from the Democratic ticket,” Richman said.

Meagher countered that Spanberger could carry the ticket.

“Partisanship is a hell of a drug,” Meagher said. “The way that people seem to be sorting themselves these days is really partisan affiliation first, everything else second.”

Miyares, a Cuban-American who made history as the commonwealth’s first Latino statewide official, has campaigned on his accomplishments during his first term, including securing over $1 billion in settlements from pharmaceutical companies for their role in the opioid epidemic, and reducing criminal violence through investments in gang prevention, supporting victim protection funding, supporting community policing in high-crime neighborhoods and increasing penalties for illegal firearm possession.

Jones, who served as assistant attorney general under Democrat Attorney General Mark Herring, has emphasized protecting abortion rights, holding corporate rule breakers accountable and standing up to the Trump administration.

Lieutenant Governor 

Democratic State Senator Ghazla Hashmi faces businessman and journalist-turned-political commentator John Reid in the race for lieutenant governor. The race will make history regardless of the outcome, as Reid would become Virginia’s first openly gay statewide official, while Hashmi would be the first Muslim-American and first Asian-American.

In addition to presiding over the state senate, the lieutenant governor enjoys the authority to cast tie-breaking votes. The Wason Center poll has Hashmi leading Reid by two points. Hashmi has out fundraised Reid with $8 million in donations compared to Reid’s $1.7 million.

Hashmi has focused her campaign on protecting abortion access, preventing gun violence through strengthening gun control measures, fighting bigotry and supporting workers’ rights to organize.

Reid’s campaign has focused on lowering taxes and deregulating businesses, supporting law enforcement officers, defending the rights of gun owners and eliminating what he calls the leftist social agendas, which include diversity initiatives and pro-transgender policies.