(CN) — The United States on Wednesday rejected the Kremlin's demands to cease trying to assimilate Ukraine into the West's military orbit, a stance that was expected and which will keep war tensions very high in Europe.
Still, hopes for a diplomatic solution got a boost too on Wednesday as Ukrainian and Russian diplomats resumed peace talks in Paris over the simmering war in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian forces are fighting Ukraine's army in a bid to gain independence.
About 14,000 people have been killed since the war broke out in 2014 following the overthrow of a pro-Russian Ukrainian president in what is known as the Maidan Revolution, a period of unrest and protests that turned violent when unknown snipers opened fire on protesters in the main square in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.
Russia claims the overthrow was orchestrated by the West and amounted to a coup. Following the government overthrow, Putin ordered Russian troops in the Crimean Peninsula to annex the peninsula, a move that sparked the current conflict. Crimea historically was part of tsarist Russia and it is home to a key Russian naval base on the Black Sea.
The peace talks over the Ukraine conflict, known as the Normandy Format, include Germany and France, but they broke down in 2019. The resumption of these talks was a welcome development.
Andriy Yermak, a negotiator for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted when he arrived in Paris that the talks sent a “strong signal of readiness for a peaceful settlement.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told the French Senate that “we are taking all the necessary initiatives to trigger a de-escalation process.”
Ukraine is a multiethnic nation with a large Russian population that has suffered discrimination since the Maidan Revolution, including bans on the use of the Russian language. Putin has used the ethnic rivalry in Ukraine to argue that Russians there need to be protected and this provides a pretext for the Kremlin's intervention in a country with deep historical meaning for Slavic populations.
Tensions are extremely high in Europe after Russian troops began amassing in November near Ukraine's borders. Western leaders accuse the Kremlin of planning a large-scale invasion of Ukraine – something Russia denies – and they are warning of severe consequences, including massive economic sanctions and booting Russian banks and businesses out of the dollar-based international financial system.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would consider levying personal sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he orders an invasion of Ukraine. Putin has been silent about the crisis since declaring in December that Ukraine's inclusion in NATO was a “red line” for Russia.
Russia has indicated that its military buildup was a response to Ukraine reneging on the 2014 peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, and that Zelenskyy aims to retake by military force the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, two self-declared pro-Russian states on the border with Russia in eastern Ukraine.
On Wednesday afternoon in Moscow, John Sullivan, the American ambassador to Russia, submitted a written response to the Kremlin's demands for a new understanding on European security.
In December, the Kremlin drafted two treaties in which it spelled out its demands on how it wanted its Soviet-era sphere of influence to be respected. The Kremlin said it wanted assurances that Ukraine and Georgia will not become NATO members and urged NATO to remove nuclear weapons and troops from Eastern Europe.
The U.S. has said the Kremlin's ultimatum was a “non-starter” but that it was prepared to open dialogue with Russia over NATO's military activities around the edges of Russia.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a video there was a “serious diplomatic path forward” to discuss “reciprocal transparency measures regarding force posture in Ukraine, as well as measures to increase confidence regarding military exercises and maneuvers in Europe.”
The U.S. had already offered such a bargain and the Kremlin previously dismissed these offers as insufficient.
“We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances,” Blinken said. The written response was not immediately available on the State Department's website.
Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are expected to discuss the state of relations in the coming days.
In the meantime, diplomacy was ramping up in Paris as French President Emmanuel Macron brought Ukrainian and Russian diplomats to the table. Macron has talked about the need to engage with Russia and formulate a new security framework for Europe, one that relies less on American power. Germany's new chancellor, Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, is also seeking to de-escalate tensions with Russia and he supports the resumption of the Normandy Format talks.
Russia's forceful tactics in Ukraine are exposing cracks within the Western alliance and upped the ante for all sides involved in the conflict.
A consensus is building that Putin is unlikely to order a full-scale invasion of Ukraine because the costs of such a drastic move would be so high. Instead, the Kremlin is expected to use more subversive tactics to get what it wants: a compliant and friendly neighbor in Ukraine.
Already, Ukrainian government websites suffered cyber-attacks and Russia media has reported that protests are breaking out against Zelenskyy's government.
Zelenskyy, a popular television comedian turned politician, won election in 2019 on a platform saying he would end the war in eastern Ukraine but upon assuming office he turned bellicose and rejected the peace talks.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow @cainburdeau
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