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Wednesday, March 27, 2024 | Back issues
Courthouse News Service Courthouse News Service

Ukraine war heats up ahead of Putin speech   

The war in Ukraine continued to intensify ahead of Victory Day on Monday, a date marking the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany. Amid military parades in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to make a major speech about the war.

(CN) — The war in Ukraine is veering dangerously toward a new sharp escalation with Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to make a major speech about the war on Monday in conjunction with Russia’s Victory Day celebrations. 

Fighting remained fierce on Friday in eastern and southern Ukraine and there was no sign of a lull or ceasefire any time soon. Rather, the war seems set to only escalate as evidence grows of the West’s deep involvement in the war and the rhetoric from Moscow becomes ever angrier. 

On Friday, American media reported that U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine sink the Moskva, Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea. This revelation came after the New York Times reported on Wednesday that American intelligence helped Ukraine kill several Russian field commanders. The Pentagon denied helping Ukraine kill the Russian generals.  

On Thursday, meanwhile, a Ukrainian news outlet, the Pravda of Ukraine, reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went to Kyiv to tell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy not to sign a peace deal with Russia.  

“Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over,” the Pravda reported, citing a close associate of Zelenskyy.  

Johnson’s trip to Kyiv on April 9 came after Ukrainian and Russian diplomats met in Istanbul on March 29 to discuss terms of a possible peace deal. By April 12, Putin said the talks were at a “dead end.”  

Ivan Katchanovski, a political scientist and Ukraine expert at the University of Ottawa, called the Pravda article and reports on U.S. intelligence help evidence that the West is involved in a proxy war in Ukraine.  

“Such revelations about Western policy of treating Ukraine as tool for proxy war with Russia and blocking peace deal to end the Ukraine-Russia War corroborate my research-based findings shortly after Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Katchanovski said on Twitter.

Friday was marked by more reports of intense fighting on the front lines with Russian forces continuing to make slow advances against stiff Ukrainian resistance in Donbas, an eastern region of Ukraine that Putin is determined to seize.  

In Mariupol, efforts resumed on Friday to evacuate civilians from the besieged Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol, but there were reports of renewed fighting. About 200 civilians were believed to still be inside bunkers at the plant. Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters are holding out inside the plant’s bomb shelters too and Russian forces are seeking to oust them.  

Monday may be a turning point in the war.  

Putin is widely expected to make announcements about what Russia will do next. Victory Day marks the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and commemorates the millions of people killed in the war. The day features a large military parade through Red Square in Moscow and a speech by the president.   

After 72 days of fighting, Putin has little that he can present as a major victory, said Andrius Tursa, an expert on Eastern and Central Europe at Teneo, a London-based political risk firm, in a briefing note.  

Tursa said Putin has “multiple options ranging from keeping the status quo to the declaration of war on Ukraine, the annexation of new territories, the start of mobilization, or the introduction of martial law in Russia.”  

Opinion polls show that around two-thirds of Russians consider it the most important holiday of the year, Tursa noted.  

“The Russian authorities have been taking advantage of this occasion to stimulate patriotic pride and showcase the country’s military power,” he said. “This year’s celebrations carry particular significance.”  

Tursa said Putin may declare victory in the Ukraine war despite having little to show as a major win.   

“Moscow’s initial efforts to take Kyiv and decapitate the government have failed,” he said. “The second phase of the offensive is progressing slowly, and the Russian forces have not taken full control of the Luhansk, Donetsk, or Kherson regions.”  

Even Mariupol has not fallen under total control either, he said. 

“Still, Putin could hold the current line of rhetoric that the operation is proceeding according to plan and that Russia is methodically moving toward its objectives of ‘demilitarization’ and ‘de-Nazification’ of Ukraine and ‘liberation’ of Donbas,” Tursa said. 

A man drives a scooter next to a bridge destroyed by shelling near Orihiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, May 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

A declaration of victory would not mean Russian forces “would leave or would even stop fighting in Ukraine,” he said. “Recall that he has declared victory in Syria on multiple occasions and yet operations continue there to this day.”  

He said Putin may call for regional referendums to be held in areas seized by his forces about joining Russia. Tursa said Putin “might go beyond Ukraine and announce such referendums in the Russian-controlled parts of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) or Moldova (Transnistria).”  

Another possibility is for Putin to formally declare war on Ukraine and start a military mobilization, Tursa said. Even though Moscow has denied any such plans, he said “such a scenario cannot be ruled out.”  

“Moscow could blame Kyiv and its suppliers of weapons for multiple recent explosions/fires in Russia, particularly in the border regions with Ukraine,” he said. “A staged larger-scale attack on its own territory is also conceivable, which would be then used as justification for the war and mobilization.”  

By declaring war, Putin could order a mass mobilization to round up the troops he needs in Ukraine, where Russian forces have been insufficient and suffered heavy losses.  

“However, it is doubtful whether thousands of inexperienced conscripts would significantly boost Russia’s military potential; in fact, this might exacerbate the persisting command, logistics and morale issues,” Tursa said.  

He said a mass mobilization might be risky for Putin because large losses could fuel backlash from the general population and Russian elites.  

“More generally, a declaration of war and mobilization would mean that Putin does not plan to end the war anytime soon,” Tursa said. “Rather, he would be forced to raise the stakes as declaring mobilization just to help retake Donbas does not make much sense as the move entails significant political risks for Putin.”  

Tursa said the introduction of martial law “in certain regions or even entire Russia could be expected along with a declaration of war and mobilization.” 

Martial law would concentrate even more power in Putin’s hands and potentially bar Russians from leaving the country. It would allow Russian authorities to take control of private assets and allow the Kremlin to end or suspend all international treaties it has with countries considered to be enemies of Russia.  

After Putin ordered the invasion on Feb. 24, Ukraine declared martial law and ordered a mass mobilization of Ukrainian men between the age of 18 and 60.  

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union. 

Follow @cainburdeau
Categories / Government, International, Politics

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