(CN) — The days when incumbent U.S. senators enjoy easy reelection may have ended in Montana, where a high-stakes battle is being waged between Senator Steve Daines and his challenger, current Governor Steve Bullock.
Incumbent senators in Montana have enjoyed high reelection rates in the last 50 years, but Daines, a Republican, is throwing everything he has at his race against Bullock, a popular two-term governor — and a Democrat.
As the only election in America with a sitting governor seeking national office, the Montana Senate race could affect the tilt of power in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim four-vote majority.
The coronavirus pandemic has likely affected Daines’ campaign, as he’s a freshman senator with few major accomplishments, while Bullock is a sitting governor filling out his second term. And Bullock has high approval ratings for his handling of the pandemic.
“This is certainly the toughest electoral fight Daines has faced,” David Parker, chair of the political science department at Montana State University, said in an interview. “I’d say that voters likely didn’t have a clear idea about Daines before he started advertising in March. In part because until this year, his legislative accomplishments have been thin, and he really hasn’t gone about the state doing town hall meetings.”
Parker said Daines’ “biggest challenge is the current political environment with an economic downturn, a pandemic and a president who is broadly unpopular. In that situation, voters tend to take out their frustrations on the incumbent.”
One frustrated Montanan is former Governor Marc Racicot, a Republican who said this week he’s not supporting President Donald Trump. Racicot, a former chair of the Republican National Committee and George W. Bush’s campaign chief, said in an interview that he would vote for Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee.
Polls in the Montana Senate race initially leaned toward Daines, but recent polls have consistently shown the race being a toss up or putting Daines at a slight advantage. According to polls from fivethirtyeight, Daines has a one-point advantage, while Real Clear Politics has the race as a tossup.
Since World War II, Montana’s incumbent senators have averaged about an 85% reelection rate, but incumbents are most at risk with their first reelection, Parker said. Daines faced little opposition in his election in 2014 when Senator John Walsh, who had been appointed to the Senate to replace retiring Senator Max Baucus resigned and did not seek reelection. “Daines has never really faced a tough election before,” Parker said.
A win for Bullock would put Democrats one seat closer to control of the Senate, which they lost in 2014. Montana has long been a pivotal player in the U.S. Senate. Senator Mike Mansfield served as Senate majority leader from 1961 to 1977, longer than any other majority leader to date.
Bullock’s strengths are his name recognition, broad popularity and ability to lead Montana even when he faced Republican majorities in the Legislature. As governor, Bullock advocated for expansion of Medicaid in Montana, which has given health care coverage to some 80,000 Montanans. A former state attorney general, Bullock also championed the state’s Disclose Act, which requires groups to make public how they spend money to influence Montana's elections.
Bullock also demonstrated his ability to win back the governor’s seat in 2016, despite the state carrying Trump by 20 points over Hillary Clinton. “I’d say absent Bullock on the ballot, Daines would have won fairly easily,” Parker said.
Bullock has also attracted a significant war chest in his campaign, which has made the race even more competitive. Daines has amassed just over $13 million in the race, according to the Federal Elections Commission, while Bullock has brought in $11.1 million with just a month before the Nov. 3 election.