Territorial dispute flares up as Kosovo seeks to purge Serb license plates

Milosevic's forces were engaged in fierce fighting against the Kosovo Liberation Army, a Kosovar Albanian armed insurgency seeking independence from Serbia.

Clinton argued that NATO needed to intervene to prevent genocide against Muslims living in Kosovo. But NATO's military intervention was blasted as a violation of international law because it was not supported by the U.N. Security Council; critics also contend NATO's siding with Kosovar Albanians set a dangerous precedent.

“Kosovo is important primarily because it created an important precedent which runs totally counter to the myth of the rules-based international order,” Trifkovic said. “I think the decision-makers and certainly the public in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe are not aware to what extent it has impacted the thinking, not only in Russia, but also in China and elsewhere in the Third World.”

He said even in Europe many see the Kosovo example as a warning.

“This is certainly the case with Spain, Greece, and Slovakia, each of which has reason to reject the notion that an ethnic minority should have the right to secession on the grounds of its majority in a locale in a given geographic part of the country,” he said.

“So, Serbia is not alone,” he added. “If you look at the population of those countries in the world which do not recognize Kosovo, it is actually 70-75% of the world's people and still Kosovo is only recognized by about one half of U.N. members and we've even had some cases of derecognition in Africa and Latin America.”

More than two decades later, Kosovo's status certainly remains unresolved and a source of potentially explosive tensions. Europe is in the midst of a wave of dangerous conflicts over geography, religion and history with the war in Ukraine obviously the most horrendous example.

The case of Kosovo involves an armed dispute between Orthodox Christian Serbs and Muslim Kosovars over who will control a province claimed by both sides.

Kosovo was at the heart of the Serbian Empire in the Middle Ages but it fell under five centuries of Ottoman rule after Serbia's defeat in the 1389 Battle of Kosovo.

By the end of the 19th century, Albanians replaced Serbs as the dominant ethnic group in Kosovo. But the province came back under Serbian control during the First Balkan War of 1912 and remained so until 1999.

Many Serbs view the loss of Kosovo as a historical injustice and an illegal partitioning of their country imposed by Washington and its Western allies in NATO eager for a military foothold in the Balkans. The U.S. quickly established Camp Bondsteel, a major military base in Kosovo, following the NATO intervention in 1999.

Elsewhere in Europe, similar clashes over territorial sovereignty are taking place between Turks and Greeks over the long-partitioned island of Cyprus; in Spain, the prospect of an autonomous Catalonia is a source of long-simmering turmoil; in Eastern Europe, independence drives by Russian-speaking populations in Moldova and Georgia threaten to boil over; and enclaves of Hungarians in Slovakia are eager to see themselves as part of Hungary.

Serwer said the two sides in the Kosovo dispute “have incompatible goals that have not changed in more than two decades.”

“Kosovo wants sovereignty and independence. Serbia claims sovereignty and denies independence,” the professor said.

Negotiations to settle the conflict involve the EU. Both Kosovo and Serbia want to be part of the EU bloc but the conflict stands in their way of becoming members.

Vucic is seeking to see northern parts of Kosovo return to Serbia in the negotiations, but Pristina is refusing to allow its small territory to be broken up.

“By far the more substantial grievances that hinder resolution are on the Albanian side, but Serb grievances also hinder conflict resolution,” Serwer said.

“Eventually EU membership is the solution, but it is far off and the path is uncertain,” he added. “The EU for now seems more allergic to Muslims than Orthodox Christians.”

Trifkovic was doubtful the prospect of EU membership will do much to change Serbia's position.

“Looking to the future, I believe that, one, neither Aleksandar Vucic nor any other prime minister or president in Belgrade will be able to sign away Kosovo – that would be the end of that politician's career,” he said.

"Two, the western powers – and particularly the EU and the U.S., which are almost acting in unison – have nothing to offer in return and so far what we have seen is simply the demand – 'do it, do it, do it' [recognize Kosovo] – without any quid pro quo,” he added.

He also criticized Kurti for bringing “a certain haughty and even brazen arrogance” to the negotiating table.

"The promise of the European path, which means membership in the EU, which is often mentioned to Serbia as some kind of compensation, is empty,” he said.

Trifkovic said Serbs are disillusioned about the EU after 22 years of seeking entry into the EU club since the fall of Milosevic.

“Most Serbs are now of the opinion that it will never happen and that there is no political will in the EU for further expansion,” he said. “And that even if it were to happen, it wouldn't lead to anything particularly good or meaningful.”

He added: “We've seen how national governments still carry out their own country's interests. At the beginning of the [coronavirus] epidemic when Italy was effectively left high and dry and when the Schengen borders suddenly became borders with border posts and controls once again.”

He argued that even if the EU were to add more members, the newest countries admitted to the club would be offered less favorable terms and gain fewer economic advantages.

As for Kosovo, he saw a bleak future.

“So, in the end, it will remain a frozen conflict,” he said.

But he doubted that Kosovo will become a field of war again.

“I don't think either the Europeans or Americans care enough for Kosovo to allow the creation of another hot spot of acute instability,” he said. “Armed conflict could only come if the Albanian authorities in Pristina tried to intervene in the north by physically subjugating the Serbs and then Serbia has no choice but to intervene. I don't think it will come to that at all.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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