(CN) – The politics of Brexit are entering a new dramatic phase as Great Britain mulls the possibility of seeking to delay its exit from the European Union.
Under growing pressure, embattled British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday promised the House of Commons the chance to delay Brexit if her much-maligned EU-friendly divorce deal is struck down on March 12 for a second time. Unless there is a delay, Britain will leave the EU on March 29.
The chance of a delay is now being viewed as both a threat and opportunity by every side involved in this game of political chess.
On one side, there are those now hoping a delay will lead to Brexit being nixed altogether. This could happen if a second referendum on Brexit is forced.
That's the hope of many in the opposition Labour Party and their allies, such as the Scottish National Party. A large segment of the British population, too, hopes to get a chance to reject Brexit in a new referendum.
For May, her threat of delaying Brexit is putting pressure on many in Parliament to back the deal she drew up with the EU or face watching Brexit get scrapped altogether.
There are signs her strategy may be working. Hard-line Conservatives, who say her deal is too favorable to the EU, may be moderating their tough stance.
A chief target is an anti-EU and pro-free market group of Conservatives gathered under the European Research Group. This group, often described as an influential “party within the Tory party,” can be likened to the Freedom Caucus in the Republican Party in the United States. Its members, known as Brexiters, pushed to get Britain out of the EU and they led the referendum campaign in 2016 that persuaded a majority of Britons to vote to leave.
In recent days, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the group's spokesman and Parliament member, has suggested he would back May's deal if she can get the EU to add a legally binding appendix setting a deadline on how long Northern Ireland is aligned with EU rules and laws.
To appease Brexiters, May has been seeking assurances from the EU that Northern Ireland will not be tied into EU rules and laws indefinitely. As it stands, her deal includes an indefinite “backstop,” as it is called, that says Northern Ireland will be tied to EU rules and laws until a future agreement is worked out. The backstop is meant to ensure the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland remains free of border checks.
Previously, Rees-Mogg had insisted that the deal's Northern Irish arrangement be scrapped altogether.
“Is the European Research Group backing down?” ran a headline in the Financial Times newspaper.
The article continued: “Are the hard Brexiters finally warming towards backing the prime minister’s Brexit deal?”
The Financial Times speculated, along with much of the British press, that Brexiters like Rees-Mogg may be reconsidering their tough stance because of the threat of Brexit being delayed.
“The Brexiters now know that if her deal is overturned again in the next two weeks, Brexit will be delayed – with no certainty about where things go from there,” the Financial Times wrote.
A major concern for hardliners is that if May's deal is defeated, Labour will propose Parliament vote for a second referendum.
On Wednesday, European leaders added even more pressure on British politicians to accept May's deal by saying they might not accept Brexit being delayed. For Brexit to be delayed, all 27 EU member states must agree to an extension, and this gives European leaders a lot of clout in this phase of Brexit.
At a news conference, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would not necessarily vote to allow a delay.