Still fighting last election, Arizona's Kari Lake battles toward Senate

PHOENIX (CN) — Key races in Arizona’s primaries, just two weeks away, could help sway the national political landscape in an already turbulent presidential election year.

Kari Lake, still challenging her loss for governor to Katie Hobbs in 2022, is now aiming for the U.S. Senate, running against an Arizona sheriff who shares her ideas but touts experience as his biggest advantage over the former news anchor.

In Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, Blake Masters, Abe Hamadeh and four other Republicans are competing to replace fellow GOP member Representative Debbie Lesko. Meanwhile, in the 1st District, two former Republicans lead the polling in a crowded field of Democrats seeking to challenge incumbent Representative David Schweikert, a Republican.

U.S. Senate — Republican Primary

Though Republicans hold one more U.S. Senate seat, Democrats have a one-vote majority thanks to the loyal support of the chamber’s three independents. When Democrat-turned-independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced she wouldn’t seek reelection, the fight for her seat became key for control of the chamber. The winner of the Republican primary will run against U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat.

“This is absolutely a battleground state,” Francisco Pedraza, a political science professor at Arizona State University, told Courthouse News.

Lake became a household name in Arizona when former President Donald Trump endorsed her for governor in 2021. She lost the election to Hobbs by roughly 17,000 votes and has failed multiple election challenges in both state and federal court.

“There are some key differences between Kari Lake and Mark Lamb,” Pedraza said. He believes Pinal County Sheriff Lamb, having distanced himself from unproven election fraud claims, may have an easier time debating Gallego in the general election.

Lamb has gained popularity as Arizona continues to confront issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. While his approach is similar to Lake’s — increase border wall and border patrol funding, reduce asylum seekers and crack down on fentanyl — his experience as a sheriff may set him apart.

“There’s a country-mile difference of experience,” Lamb told Courthouse News outside a campaign event in Chandler. “There’s not a candidate that brings more experience than what I do: crime, national security, border security.”

But Lake, who commands a larger audience and enjoys a comfortable lead over Lamb in most recent polls, seems unbothered. She skipped a debate in June, saying she’s confident she’ll beat Lamb anyway.

Lamb said, “ I’ve never hired anybody that didn’t show up for a job interview.”

Lake’s campaign didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Both candidates are anti-abortion but say they would oppose a federal abortion ban and leave the choice to the states. In 2022, Lake called Arizona’s near-total abortion ban “a great law” but switched her stance after the state Supreme Court revived the law, in a possible attempt to appeal to moderate voters.

Pedraza said the shift won’t hurt her in the primary but may become an issue if she runs into Gallego.

“That’s the kind of thing a Democratic candidate will pounce on,” he said.

8th Congressional District — Republican Primary

Six Republicans and one Democrat are competing to replace incumbent Representative Debbie Lesko, a Republican retiring from the U.S. House of Representatives, though the race will likely come down to two.

“It’ll be between Hamadeh and Masters,” Pedraza said, all but dismissing Democratic candidate Gregory Whitten in a district that is solidly Republican.

Like Lake, Hamadeh launched several election challenges after he lost the 2022 attorney general race by only 280 votes — the smallest margin in state history. He has publicly questioned election integrity. But in May, Masters shared texts from January 2023 in which Hamadeh called election deniers “crazies” and said he was glad he wasn’t “lumped in” with them. Masters said Hamadeh is using his voters.

It’s unclear what impact the texts will have on Hamadeh’s campaign, but the former prosecutor is ahead in the most recent poll. Overall, polling is scattered, putting the two nearly equal in front of the race.

They share similar views on key issues: Both are staunchly pro-Second Amendment, pro-border security and anti-abortion. Masters has publicly changed his stance on abortion more than once, but most recently he said in a February debate that he supports a federal ban as early as 12 to 15 weeks.

Neither responded to requests for comment.

Trailing the two are Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma, state senator and indicted “fake elector” Anthony Kern and former U.S. Representative Trent Franks.

Toma is behind both House Concurrent Resolution 2060 — the November ballot initiative that would enforce federal law against border crossings outside legal ports of entry at the state level, make it a felony to submit false citizenship documents to government programs for employers, and establish “lethal sale of fentanyl” as a felony act if one knowingly sells a lethal dose — and the state’s school choice voucher program, which has been a center of controversy since the state opened it to all students in 2022.

“I’ve proven that I can get things done under very tight circumstances,” he told Courthouse News. “Everything that I’ve done that’s of note, I got done with a one-vote majority. The same sort of situation is true in D.C. right now. Very tight majorities.”

After border security, Toma said he would support the expansion of school choice nationwide and vote for a federal abortion ban starting in the second or third trimester.

1st Congressional District — Democratic Primary

Republicans hold an eight-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Center for Politics estimates that as many as two dozen seats may flip Republican this year. But some seats could go in the opposite direction.

Of the six Democrats looking to take on incumbent Representative David Schweikert, a Republican, two are former Republicans.

Amish Shah, leading in most recent polls, voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, though he voted for Hillary Clinton in the general. Democrats in the legislature say Shah was iced out of caucus meetings in 2021 and 2022 because he would pass information to Republicans and work against party goals.

“If his own party doesn’t trust him, that’s a credibility issue,” Pedraza said.

Marlene Galan-Woods, polling in the middle of the pack, was a registered Republican until 2018. Her parents fled Cuba in the ’60s, and their patriotism was a large factor in her political alignment, she said in a May debate.

“I have always been pro-choice, pro-democracy, pro-climate,” she said.

Neither candidate replied to requests for comment.

Two candidates are reckoning with their pasts in other ways: Conor O’Callaghan was named an unindicted co-conspirator in a fraud investigation and Andrei Cherny’s former company is under federal investigation for misrepresenting its climate-conscious structure.

Former nonprofit CEO Kurt Kroemer sees an advantage despite his low polling.

Kroemer told Courthouse News that Schweikert would exploit the “serious negatives” of each candidate.

“He can make stuff up, but I have no negatives,” Kroemer said.

Three candidates, including Kroemer, Cherny and Andrew Horne, support banning assault weapons.

“Assault weapons are designed for war, not for our communities, and have no place in civilian hands,” Horne told Courthouse News.

Pedraza said the sentiment may hurt a candidate going against Schweikert.

“We’re in Arizona, you’ve got to keep that in mind,” Pedraza said.

But Kroemer is sticking to his guns — figuratively.

“My answer to that is ‘I don’t care,’” he said. “The right thing is the right thing.”

Arizonans have until Friday to request early ballots, and mail in ballots must be returned by July 23. In-person voting is July 30.

Follow @JournalistJoeAZ