(CN) — As was widely expected, Russians gave President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party a clear victory in parliamentary elections that were viewed as neither fair nor free after months of state repression of opposition figures and allegations of widespread electoral fraud.
United Russia, Putin's ruling conservative nationalist party, picked up about 50% of the ballots cast in a three-day election that ended Sunday evening, according to preliminary results from Russia's electoral commission on Monday.
Under Russia's election system, Putin's party is expected to also get a supermajority of two-thirds of the seats in the 450-seat State Duma, a result that will mean the lower house of the parliament in Moscow will remain a predictable rubber stamp machine for the Kremlin's policies, political observers said.
Still, United Russia's tally was about 4% less than it got in 2016 and it will have 19 fewer seats, an indication of voter frustration with the party and a sign of a limited success by imprisoned opposition figure Alexei Navalny to get voters to cast ballots for candidates from parties other than United Russia.
Russia's Communist Party benefited the most and won about 20% of the vote, a sizeable increase from 2016. But in the past the Communist Party has largely supported Putin and it is not seen as a real opposition force. The rest of the votes were split among smaller parties that generally support Putin's legislative agenda.
However, there were signs on Monday that the Communists might become more combative as party leaders cast doubts on results from electronic voting that wiped out leads some of their candidates had after paper ballots were counted. Tallies from electronic votes came in very late, arriving on Monday, and that added to suspicions.
“These are fake elections that nobody needs, and they are deepening social divisions in society,” the Communist Party's leader, Gennady Zyuganov, said. He alleged votes had been robbed from his party.
The landslide victory likely means Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and key ministers in his cabinet will keep their jobs, experts said.
In the West, the election was regarded as a stage-managed and dishonest affair meant to give Putin's presidency an air of legitimacy and prove he enjoys deep and widespread support. Since 2018, Putin's popularity has waned a bit, though polls show more than 60% of Russians approve of his work as president.
“We have to start by being brutally aware how little these elections mean,” said Mark Galleotti, a Russia expert, in a panel discussion on the elections organized by CEPS, a Brussels think tank. “The State Duma is not solely a rubber-stamp institution but to a considerable extent it is essentially a part of the overall theatricality of the political system.”
But he said support for United Russia is dipping and that there are currents of unease inside the Kremlin and the Russian elite. He said the “strength of political consensus” behind the Kremlin is fading.
Still, he said the elections will serve their purpose and help the Kremlin “to continue looking strong.”
The elections will yield “a few more opposition figures, but they will not have major impact,” he said.
Experts said they did not expect the election results to spark protests.
“There are no signs of post-election protests and large-scale demonstrations; they appear unlikely in the coming days due to the lack of influential organizers and apathy among voters,” Andrius Tursa, a Russia analyst for Teneo, a political risk firm in London, said in a briefing note.
The future of Russia depends much more on the outcome of presidential elections in 2024. Putin has not said whether he intends to run again for president. Controversial constitutional changes passed last year allow him to run again despite having already served as president since 2012.
Follow @cainburdeau
