Russia-US talks end with impasse and new provocations

In a tactical move, Lavrov chose to do the interview from inside an historic Foreign Ministry mansion where several multilateral deals were reached in the past. He obviously wanted to remind the U.S. that world peace is based on cooperation and respect and that Moscow's role and consent are crucial.

The mansion, Nikonov said in introducing Lavrov, was famous for being the location for the signing of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty that banned testing nuclear weapons in outer space, under water and in the atmosphere and for being the site where the first G-8 meeting took place in 1996, the year a new post-Soviet Russia was accepted into the club of rich democratic countries. Russia was kicked out of that same club after it annexed Crimea in 2014 and today it meets as the G-7 rather than the G-8.

“This building hosted another important event in world history,” Lavrov said. “In the autumn of 1943, the foreign ministers of the U.S.S.R, Great Britain and the U.S. signed here a declaration that mentioned for the first time after the victory over Nazism the need to establish a global organization. The term 'U.N.' was not yet used at that time.”

And he got to his point: “This is symbolic. Today, we are discussing a situation that is largely the result of Western attempts to call into doubt the universal legitimacy of the U.N. The West is replacing international law with its own rules that all others have to follow.”

Lavrov said Western powers need to understand Russia's concerns and acknowledge that European peace and security was based on agreements formulated in the late 1990s that said neither side would take steps to make the other feel threatened.

In December, Russia issued two draft treaties stating its demands and red lines which, at their heart, demand NATO commit to legal assurances that Ukraine and Georgia cannot become members of the military alliance and that NATO draw down military activities along its borders.

The U.S and NATO have rejected those demands, arguing that NATO has an open door policy and that Russia cannot dictate the foreign policy of independent nations.

Over in Washington, Blinken said the U.S. cannot accept Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. Russia argues Crimea historically was part of Russia and only became part of Ukraine in 1954 during Soviet times.

The Crimea annexation took place after Kyiv turned into an ally of the West following the overthrow of a pro-Russian president. Russia labels those events as a U.S.-orchestrated operation to set up a pro-American government in Kyiv. Moscow invaded Crimea also to safeguard its Sevastopol Naval Base, home to its Black Sea Fleet. Gaining access to warm waters, such as those in the Black Sea, was a main driver in Russian tsarist history.

But Russia accepted Ukraine's borders, including its possession of Crimea, when the Soviet Union dissolved and the Crimean peninsula is a legitimate part of Ukraine, the U.S. argues. Putin, meanwhile, has spoken about how Ukraine and Russia should be seen as a unified people.

“One nation can’t simply redraw the borders of another by force,” Blinken said. “One nation can’t dictate to one of its neighbors its choices, its people’s choices about their policies, about with whom they’ll associate... If we allow that to stand with impunity, that will undermine the entire international system, other countries will hear the message, they’ll act similarly, and that’s a recipe for tension, for conflict, for war.”

As Western allies and Russia mull their options in the wake of this week of diplomatic impasse, it seems that events are poised to escalate and become even more testy.

On Friday, Ukrainian officials said they were hit by a cyberattack that captured government websites and that an ominous message appeared on the websites that read: “Be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future.” Russia denied any involvement, but Western officials pointed at Russia as the likely culprit.

Cyberattacks have become a favorite battleground in this new conflict between the West and Russia. In December, a top Russian official declared that World War III has already started in cyberspace.

“A war is taking place, and taking place very intensely,” said Andrey Krutskikh, a top Foreign Ministry official, during a speech at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, according to RT, a Russian government news outlet.

“As much as we act like this is all hidden, in fact, full-scale hostilities are happening in cyberspace,” he said. “And in general, the media are correct to say this is already a Third World War. We just don’t know the extent of the damage, or who will lose in the end, or what the world’s configuration will be as a result of the war.”

With the talks at an impasse, Moscow became even more provocative with Russian media reporting the Kremlin was looking at sending military deployments to Cuba and Venezuela. Blinken characterized it as “bluster” but the White House said that if that happened it would “deal with it decisively.”

At a news conference on Friday, Lavrov said Moscow’s “patience has come to an end. We are very patient…we have been harnessing [burdens] for a very long time, and now it’s time for us to go.”

The U.S. again accused Russia of preparing to invade Ukraine imminently with U.S. officials alleging the Kremlin was planning to do a “false flag” operation to give it a pretext to charge across Ukraine's borders.

Russia is backing pro-Russia separatists in Donbas in eastern Ukraine, a conflict that erupted following the annexation of Crimea. About 14,000 people have been killed in the war. Peace talks have stalled as Ukraine refuses to allow the predominantly Russian eastern parts of the country gain more autonomy.

Media reported that Russian soldiers did live-fire military drills close to Ukraine's borders on Friday, another highly provocative move. About 100,000 Russian troops have amassed close to Ukraine's borders. The Kremlin argues it is worried about Ukraine invading Donbas.

Next week, Germany's new foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock from the Greens, is planning to head to Moscow for talks. But her party is hawkish and seen as potentially making Germany more aggressive against Russia. Germany has deep economic and cultural ties with Russia and tends to want to foster cooperation and good relations. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was fluent in Russian and often was called upon to negotiate with Putin but she retired from the world stage last month.

For now, it's very difficult to assess what will happen.

Tursa, the Teneo analyst, said breakthroughs over Russia's demands to keep Ukraine out of NATO are unlikely. But he said the two sides may be able to compromise in other areas, such as striking deals to limit missile placements and military exercises, tackle cyber-threats and improving communication channels.

“While both sides do not rule out further talks, their timeline, format and, most importantly, way forward remain unclear,” Tursa said. “Russia could further escalate tensions to pressure the West. Such an approach would assume that the Western allies – particularly the largest European countries – are neither prepared nor willing to risk a large-scale military conflict in Europe over Ukraine and would eventually accept Russia’s demands.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

Subscribe to Closing Arguments

Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.

Email *

Submit