Russia-EU clash over Kaliningrad enclave blockade as war rages on

(CN) — Russia made an unspecified warning that it will retaliate against a move from Lithuania, a member of EU and NATO, to block large volumes of sanctioned Russian goods from reaching the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.

The new tensions over the Baltic Sea region add a layer of danger to the war in Ukraine, which shows no sign of ending entering its fifth month.

Russian forces have all but captured Sievierodonetsk in eastern city Ukraine and are slowly advancing elsewhere on the front lines, but Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in places, too, aided by the arrival of new heavy weapons from the West. Both sides are suffering heavy losses.

In recent days, Ukraine has sought to punish Russia with rocket attacks against the Russian-held city of Donetsk and drilling platforms off the coast of Crimea, as well as attacks against Russian forces on Snake Island, a small but strategic island off the coast of Odesa, a key grain port on the Black Sea that remains blocked and a potential target of a Russian amphibious invasion.

Ukrainian shells allegedly hit a maternity hospital in Donetsk and other civilian infrastructure, killing and wounding civilians. Russia's attacks in eastern Ukraine continue to kill civilians, too.

On Monday, Lithuania announced it was blocking Russian goods from reaching Kaliningrad, a port city and region of about 1 million people surrounded by Poland and Lithuania. Vilnius said it was blocking trains carrying Russian goods in accordance with sweeping sanctions imposed on Moscow by the European Union.

“Russia will certainly respond to such hostile actions,” threatened Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's Security Council. “Appropriate measures … will be taken in the near future. … Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania.”

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said his country was blocking goods as stipulated by EU sanctions that came into force on June 17. An unprecedented wave of sanctions has been imposed on Russia by the United States and its allies in what amounts to economic warfare on Moscow.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell backed up Lithuania's position, denying it was a “blockade” and that people and goods not under sanctions can continue to transit. But goods such as steel, ore and coal are under embargo.

“Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions,” Borrell said.

The Kremlin called the blockade a violation of treaties ensuring Russia's access to its Baltic enclave, which is also home to its Baltic Sea Fleet. In recent weeks, Russia has threatened to place nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO.

“This decision is truly unprecedented. It is a violation of everything,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “We also consider it illegal. … We need a serious, in-depth analysis to work out our response decisions.”

Russia has been striking back at the EU's sanctions already by cutting off natural gas supplies to European nations, including Italy, the Netherlands and Germany, and it may shut off even more gas flows in retaliation.

The rising cost of fuel is causing serious pain in Europe where strikes and protests are growing in number. Italy has issued a state of alarm over the reduction in gas flows, and Germany is reportedly set to announce a state of emergency.

Europe is preparing for a very difficult winter and scrambling to stock up on fuel. The bloc is also putting aside pledges to reduce carbon emissions by increasing the use of coal. It says the return to coal will be temporary.

“Europe must be prepared for the fact that Russian gas will be completely cut off,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, told the Financial Times.

There are dangers that the tension in the Baltic region could escalate and draw NATO further into conflict with Russia. NATO military planners worry that Russia may try to seize the corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus — known as the Suwalki Gap — in the event of a major Russia-NATO confrontation. Western media have dubbed the sparsely populated Suwalki Gap “the most dangerous place on earth.”

The former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are members of the NATO military alliance, and they have become leading voices along with Poland in the EU advocating a tough response to Russia. These tiny countries also contain small populations of ethnic Russians, a situation that could cause an escalation of tensions.

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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