Redistricting muddies primary picture for California voters

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — Assemblymember James Gallagher has his feet in two different worlds.

One is in Northern California’s existing 1st Congressional District. A special election June 2 will decide who finishes the remaining term of former U.S. Representative Doug LaMalfa, who died this year.

The other foot rests in the new 1st District, with a map redrawn under the state’s Proposition 50. That full term is also up for election on June 2.

Ballots are in the mail.

Whoever wins the runoff for the special election on Aug. 4 will complete the handful of months remaining in LaMalfa’s term. The general election for the seat’s next two-year term is Nov. 3.

Congressional districts are redrawn every decade, governed by the census and population changes. But President Donald Trump interrupted that pattern, urging Texas Governor Greg Abbott to create opportunities for Republicans to gain five seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

California Governor Gavin Newsom responded with new maps favoring Democrats and a statewide vote on Proposition 50, which passed overwhelmingly last November.

Now Gallagher, a Republican state lawmaker who terms out of the Legislature this year, is navigating two different realities.

“I feel really good about the special,” he told Courthouse News, pointing to the election to fill the remainder of LaMalfa’s term. “We have a tremendous amount of support in that district. Very rural. Lot of small towns.

“That’s very familiar territory and I feel very good about my chances to win that seat,” he added.

The race for the full term that starts in January is a different story. There’s a different map, changed to favor Democrats in last November’s vote. A large rural portion of the area includes voters much closer to the coast, shifting the district away from ruby red to deeper blue.

Gallagher called the new map more challenging, a district gerrymandered by Newsom and Democrats.

It’s a map that also confronts Democrat Audrey Denney. She ran against LaMalfa twice before the 2020 census altered the districts. Now, like Gallagher and a handful of other candidates, she’s vying to fill LaMalfa’s remaining term and start a full term next year.

The top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

Denney has only run in a district that leaned heavily Republican. She said the new map takes a Republican +17 seat and makes it +10 for Democrats.

“It’s kind of this wild phenomenon,” Denney told Courthouse News, adding: “The fact that it’s two different maps but it’s the same day.”

Off to the races

The resignation last month of former U.S. Representative and gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell amid accusations of sexual misconduct leaves the 14th District facing a special election too.

The East Bay area primary for the next full term is June 2, with a general scheduled for Nov. 3. A special election for the remainder of the term comes on June 16, with a special general election to follow Aug. 18.

Eleven candidates are running to complete Swalwell’s term, with nine are seeking the full term.

U.S. Representative Kevin Kiley of the 3rd District is in a different situation stemming directly from Proposition 50. Formerly a Republican, the current No Party Preference candidate is running in California’s newly redrawn 6th Congressional District against Democrats like former state Senator Richard Pan and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho.

Kiley told Courthouse News the new district includes about 40% of his existing one, which stretches along the state’s eastern border with Nevada and includes Lake Tahoe.

Kiley is no fan of Proposition 50. While the California Citizens Redistricting Commission is slated to be reinstated after the 2030 census, Kiley worries state lawmakers might prove reluctant to return that power.

“Are they going to be willing to give it up again?” he asked. “We’ll see.”

The race is one of dozens that will draw Californians to the polls on June 2.

U.S. Representative Adam Gray’s 13th District currently stretches from Modesto in the north to southwest of Fresno. It includes Merced and Madera. The new 13th District doesn’t extend as far south and has a sliver pushing north into Stockton.

Gray was one of six Democrats who sided with Republicans to end last year’s federal government shutdown. Two Republicans are trying to unseat him in the swing district.

In the 22nd District, Democratic Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains is vying to topple Republican U.S. Representative David Valadao in a hotly contested race. Democrats see it as a key contest in the Central Valley needed to regain control of Congress’ lower chamber.

Bains has made headlines for bucking her party. She was the lone Democrat to oppose the bill that redrew the congressional districts under Proposition 50.

The district sits roughly between Fresno and Bakersfield.

The lines of the 45th Congressional District in Orange County changed little, though it remains a tight race.

Two years ago, Derek Tran, a Democrat, ousted Republican Michelle Steel by some 600 votes. The U.S. representative will face five Republican contenders on the June 2 ballot.

Steel had served for two terms in a district that supported Joe Biden in 2020 when Tran defeated her.

Another closely watched race is the 48th Congressional District, where incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Darrel Issa declined to run for reelection.

His district, which once shared much of California’s southern border with Mexico, faced a major reshuffling under Proposition 50. That newly mapped district led a host of contenders to toss their hats in the ring. Nine Democrats, two Republicans and one No Party Preference candidate are fighting for the top two spots and a shot in November’s general election.

Grim proposition

While Proposition 50 may loom over this year’s election, James Adams — a UC Davis political science professor — sees it causing little backlash among voters.

He told Courthouse News that since Democrats framed the question as a response to Trump’s actions in Texas. and the president’s unpopularity, their chances this election cycle appear strong.

Adams said he hasn’t seen Republican chances look this grim since 1974. That election came after President Richard Nixon left the White House in disgrace and the country was grappling with an oil crisis.

Democrats also have a host of issues for their campaigns, Adams said — affordability, inflation, immigration and accusations that Trump has weaponized the Justice Department.

“They can run on Trump’s erratic behavior,” he added, pointing to a recent picture posted online by Trump depicting him as Jesus. “They can run on incompetence.”

California Republicans also might have a more difficult situation than their Democratic counterparts once they reach the general election, Adams said. If Republicans distance themselves from an unpopular Trump in an attempt to garner votes, they alienate MAGA adherents. If they embrace Trump, they alienate everyone else.

“That is a major problem,” he added.

Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Sacramento State, said the electoral issues are tied to Trump, like the Iran war and gas prices. While issues motivated voters in the past, it’s the president’s politics that currently drive people’s votes.

And Proposition 50 has significantly affected where federal representatives will stand on those issues, as the new districts favor Democrats.

Nalder said she views Proposition 50 as a race to the bottom. Voters want their representatives to share their beliefs and needs. That need to have representation resembling the constituency has led to the State of Jefferson movement — a decadesold effort to have portions of Northern California and southern Oregon become a new state.

“It just feeds that fire,” she said.

For Nalder, Proposition 50 boils down to California “cheating” because Texas did it first. She thinks its expiration date helped the measure at the polls.

But until 2030, voters in the 1st Congressional District — once a mostly rural, deep red area — will share their representative with people closer to the coast who trend blue.

“They just have really different issues and concerns,” Nalder said.