(CN) — Contrary to fears of many in the West and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday delivered a Victory Day speech in Moscow’s Red Square that did not mark a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.
In front of about 11,000 Russian troops, military brass and Russia’s political elites, Putin delivered a fiery anti-West speech to commemorate the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II but he did not use the occasion to inflame the Ukraine war further.
There was speculation that he might formally declare war against Ukraine, order a mass mobilization and place Russia under martial law. Putin, though, largely delivered a speech that mirrored statements he has made in recent months. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have formally declared war and Putin refers to the invasion as a “special military operation.” Media in Russia are forbidden from referring to the invasion of Ukraine as a war.
“In the end, Russian President Vladimir Putin threw the experts for a loop again,” the Eurasia Group, a think tank, said in a briefing note.
Fighting, meanwhile, continued to be fierce in Ukraine with Russian forces claiming limited advances in Donbas and Ukrainian forces regaining territory near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
The weekend was marked by high-level visits to Kyiv, including by American first lady Jill Biden and rock star Bono, and continued Western support for Ukraine with the Group of Seven leaders vowing to cut off Russian imports and impose more economic sanctions. But the European Union was struggling to find consensus over an oil embargo with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an ally of Putin, blocking the move.
The weekend also saw bloody battles and Russia was accused of striking a school in eastern Ukraine where 90 people were sheltering. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at least 60 people were killed in the school.
In the port city of Mariupol, more civilians trapped inside the Azovstal steelworks were released on Sunday, potentially the last non-fighters left in bunkers where Ukrainian fighters are holding out. A Russian assault on the steelworks continued on Monday.
Putin’s speech in Red Square was closely watched not just for indications of what Russia’s war strategy will be going forward but also for signs of Putin’s own state of health. Rumors have been circulating for months that Putin suffers from possible illnesses, including Parkinson’s disease and cancer. But the Russian president, who is 69, appeared healthy.
The main thrust of his speech blamed NATO’s eastward expansion as the reason for Russia’s invasion. Since at least 2007, Putin has spoken out against the expansion of NATO onto Russia’s borders and warned that the U.S.-led military alliance was undermining Russia’s sense of security. Efforts to include Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance were viewed by many in Moscow as an intolerable threat. The West mostly dismisses Russia’s concerns as illegitimate.
“The NATO bloc began actively trying to assimilate the territories adjacent to us by military means,” Putin said. “In this way, they began systematically creating an absolutely unacceptable threat and directly on our borders.”
Putin said it was “inevitable” that Russia would have to fight against Ukrainian “neo-Nazis, Banderites, on whom the United States and their junior partners had placed their bets.”
As he did in launching the invasion, Putin portrayed the Kyiv regime as dominated by neo-Nazis and “Banderites,” followers of Stepan Bandera, a Nazi collaborator who led Ukrainian nationalists in a guerilla war against the Soviet Union during World War II.
Follow @cainburdeau
