Post-Debate Clinton Up in Four Key States, Polls Say

     (CN) – Hillary Clinton’s lead in California over Republican rival Donald Trump has increased to 26 points in the days since the first presidential debate, a KABC-TV Los Angeles survey found, while other polls show her leading in Florida, New Hampshire and Michigan.
     The KABC/USC Tracking poll released Thursday evening shows Clinton with the support of 59 percent of likely voters, Trump with 33 percent, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 3 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
     Clinton leads by 35 points among women (up 5 points from three weeks ago), leads by 28 percent among suburban mothers, and leads by 52 points among single mothers.
     She leads by 5 points among white voters, 4 points among Asian voters, by 50 points among Latino voters and 71 points among black voters.
     The survey found Clinton leads by 39 points among first-generation Californians, and that she’s particularly strong in the greater Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas. Clinton and Trump split the vote in Central California.
     In addition, Clinton has the support of 96 percent of Democrats, while moderates break for Clinton by 34 points and independents by 7 points.
     As for Trump, he has the support of 81 percent of California’s Republican base and leads Clinton in the state’s Inland Empire. He also holds a 5-point lead among gun owners.
     Of those who have committed to either candidate, 71 percent of Clinton supporters said they enthusiastically support Clinton and 64 percent of Trump’s camp said they enthusiastically support Trump.
     There are now 39 days left until Election Day. Early voting in California begins in 10 days.
     The Detroit News announced Friday that Clinton now holds a 7-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head race in Michigan, 42 percent to 35 percent, and that her 7-point lead holds when the Libertarian and Green Party candidates are thrown into the mix.
     After Monday’s debate, 62.5 percent of the voters polled by Glengariff Group on behalf of the newspaper said Trump is unqualified to be president. Meanwhile, 57 percent said they believe Clinton is qualified.
     “The problem for Trump is the debate was the prime opportunity to shift that perception that he wasn’t qualified,” said pollster Richard Czuba, president of Glengariff Group. “In the next debate, he’s going to have to focus on this issue.”
     The next presidential debate will be held Sunday Oct. 9, at Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.. Before then, their running mates will lock horns Oct. 4 at Longwood University in Farmville, Va.
     Clinton also holds a 7-point lead in New Hampshire, according to the latest WBUR/Mass Inc. Polling Group poll.
     WBUR said Friday Clinton now leads in the state by 42 percent, with Trump at 35 percent, Johnson at 13 percent and Stein at 4 percent.
     Both Michigan and New Hampshire are considered critical to the GOP’s effort to win the White House.
     In Florida, the Mason-Dixon poll released Friday shows Clinton with a 4-point post-debate lead, with the Democrat garnering 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, Johnson’s 7 percent and Stein’s 1 percent.
     The pollster said the race in Florida continues to be predictably split among various demographic subgroups.
     Clinton leads among Democrats, 83 percent to 10 percent; women, 54 percent to 36 percent; black voters, 92 percent to 1 percent; Latinos, 64 percent to 29 percent; and in Southeast Florida, 58 percent to 29 percent.
     Trump leads among Republicans, 77 percent to 13 percent; unaffiliated voters, 41 percent to 33 percent; men, 49 percent to 37 percent; and non-Hispanic whites 53 percent to 33 percent.
     Trump’s geographic strength is in North Florida, where he leads 53 percent to 37 percent, and in Southwest Florida, where his lead is 51 percent to 36 percent.
     The geographic breakdown is no surprise, but highlights how critical voters in the central Interstate 4 corridor will be in deciding who ultimately takes the state and its all important 29 electoral votes.
     Florida represents 5.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 10.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
     Between 1900 and 2012, Florida cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 75.86 percent of the time.
     Currently, the Mason-Dixon poll says Clinton has a slight edge in the I-4 corridor. She now has a 47 percent to 40 percent advantage in the swing Tampa Bay area, while Trump leads 46 percent to 43 percent in the more Republican Central Florida.

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