(CN) — Since inaccurate polling muddied the waters of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, generally by understating GOP support, polling methods have become more diverse and thorough, according to a report released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center.
In a study of 78 national polling organizations, Pew determined 61% have changed methods since 2016, while 17% of organizations have adopted multiple methods, which is up from just 2% in 2016.
The study, which captured what changes were made and when but not why, found far fewer organizations are currently relying upon the traditional method of live, cold-calling phone interviews. Instead, far more organizations are capturing data from online opt-in polls, where participants are recruited via internet ads or social posts.
The study sampled the methods of major news networks, national newspapers, foundations, universities, nonprofits and political websites such as Politico and FiveThirtyEight.com. Pew concluded changes occurred more rapidly after the 2020 election, when polls indicated President Joe Biden would experience a larger margin of victory over Donald Trump than was ultimately realized.
Similarly, Trump was expected to lose the 2016 election to Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to most polls from the time. But although he did lose the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes, Trump won the electoral vote 304 to Clinton’s 227.
After 2016, about half of polling organizations shifted toward more online interviews or away from live phone interviews. By contrast, the changes observed from 2020 to 2022 included new approaches like text messaging, probability-based panels or multiple new methods.
The use of probability based panels — a group of people who agree to take surveys on an ongoing basis and who are recruited via random sampling of home addresses or phone numbers — has increased three-fold since 2016. Online opt-in sampling more than quadrupled between 2012 and 2020, but has since held flat, “suggesting that the era of explosive growth could be ending,” according to Pew.
Still, 61% of organizations continue to use only one method, while 22% use two methods and only 17% use three or more methods. Pollsters that used at least three different methods in 2022 include CNN, Gallup, NPR, Politico and USA Today.
Text-based polling is not common, but has emerged since 2020 as a viable replacement for live phone calls with random-digit dial, which has increasingly fallen out of favor due to its low reliability. Yet nearly one-third of organizations surveyed still use live phone calls either alone or in combination with other polling methods, while only 10% rely upon phone calls as their only polling method.
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