Personality, not policy, could decide Oakland's next mayor

OAKLAND, Calif. (CN) — With one week left until the Oakland’s special mayoral election on April 15, popular former congresswoman Barbara Lee is fighting a tight race against ex-city councilmember Loren Taylor — one that could hinge not just on their visions for the future of one of California’s most progressive cities, but on how much voters trust them to unite a city in crisis.

“I think the difference voters are looking for is truly who they trust most to represent them,” Corey Cook, a professor of politics at St. Mary’s College, told Courthouse News. “They’re looking at their biography, their history, their past leadership — these are not candidates who need to introduce themselves to voters.”

The election, triggered by the 2024 recall of the previous mayor Sheng Thao — who was indicted by a federal grand jury on bribery and corruption charges in January — comes as Oakland has largely lost faith in city officials.

Nearly 72% of Oakland residents disapprove of the overall job being done by the city’s government, according to a recent survey. Plenty of factors are to blame, chief among them are crime, homelessness, shuttering businesses and an $87 million budget deficit that city hall is still scrambling to fix.

The two candidates — the top two frontrunners for the position — agree on many issues, but where Lee represents traditional progressive strategies for dealing with Oakland’s problems, Taylor has embraced the position of the race’s moderate democrat.

A heated race

Elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1998, Lee entered the national stage as the only member of Congress to vote against the authorization of force following the September 11 attacks. She opted out of reelection to the House in 2024 to throw her hat into the race for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the 2023 death of Dianne Feinstein, though she was knocked out of the senate race during the primary.

“As your mayor, I will put this city on track to keep our vision for a clean, a safe and a thriving city for all,” Lee told the League of Women Voters in March.

Taylor, a former Oakland city councilmember and business advocate who served from 2019 to 2023, has notably taken a more aggressive stance on issues like homeless encampments, which he says he would move away from schools and stores by invoking existing laws. He also has a more detailed plan to help Oakland’s small businesses.

Lee has made it clear she thinks she’s the best candidate for standing up to the Trump administration, citing her experience in Congress.

Though these details are important, Cook says they may matter less to the individual voter than each candidate’s character.

“I think what we’re seeing is not an ‘issue election’ where they’re saying ‘Actually, my homeless plan is better than your homeless plan,’  but instead: ‘Who do you think can actually unite the city?’”

Without stark differences in the candidates, voters are liable to choose based on the candidate’s personal histories — which explains the negative ads and accusations from both camps as election day nears.

“Unlike my opponent Barbara Lee — who is leaning heavily on establishment figures and political alliances that have failed our city — my campaign is rooted in the communities that make Oakland what it is,” Taylor told Courthouse News in an email.

Taylor has also touted his comparative age in interviews — 47 to Lee’s 78 — claiming that Oakland is ready for a new voice rather than status-quo political players.

Lee, meanwhile, is running on her record as an elder stateswoman.

“I fought for Oakland for decades as an assemblymember, state senator and congresswoman. Now, I am ready to come home and put Oakland on a path to success,” Lee told Courthouse News.

Cook stated that these campaign techniques are to be expected, particularly from Taylor, who needs to be on the offensive.

“Barbara Lee is very well-known in Oakland. So, to be able to be elected, he has to pierce that shield a little bit,” Cook told Courthouse News.

Lee has squared the same blame on Taylor for not doing more to help the town during his four years on city council and publicly chastised him for running an ad that featured a faked news article critical of Lee. Taylor claims he had no communication with the group that aired the ad.

Lee also published an FAQ on her website labeled “The Truth About Loren Taylor,” where she accuses him of being tied to local conservative mouthpiece Seneca Scott. Scott effectively endorsed Taylor on X, formerly Twitter, in early February. Taylor later said he had “no relationship” with Scott in a forum at the Oakland LGBTQ Community Center.

A complex political backdrop

Both campaigns also tried tying each other to the ongoing corruption investigation in city hall.

Taylor has highlighted Lee’s endorsements of Thao’s mayoral run in 2022 and against Thao’s recall effort in 2024, as well as $5,000 in campaign donations she took from Andy Duong and his family, central figures in Thao’s indictment. Lee has posted pictures on her website of Taylor taking a selfie with Duong.

Taylor previously lost an extremely close bid for mayor by approximately 680 votes in 2022 against Thao. The candidate vented his frustrations to Courthouse News outside of Thao’s indictment proceedings in January.

“Clearly, what was documented in the indictment had a major effect and swayed the outcome of the election. I’m angry and frustrated for Oaklanders who basically had democracy stolen from them as these shenanigans took place, which clearly put us on a trajectory for a downward spiral here in Oakland,” Taylor said then.

Lee has predictably secured the backing of many high-level names in the progressive camp, including former Governor Jerry Brown, former mayors, powerful labor unions and business owners.

The Alameda County Democratic Party has also settled behind Lee in the race, which is a big deal in a city where 58% of voters are registered Democrats.

“I think this is a fitting endorsement, given former Congresswoman Lee’s track record of representing our values and speaking in support of all of us, even when it’s not the most popular thing to do,” Igor Tregub, Chair of the Alameda County Democratic Party, told Courthouse News in an interview.

Taylor isn’t completely beat when it comes to endorsement though. He recently just received a glowing one from the San Francisco Chronicle.

Overall, Taylor told Courthouse News he feels “confident” in his chances to beat Lee. His campaign recently celebrated two polls — one of which he commissioned — that showed him on par or ahead of Lee by a margin of four to five points.

Lee meanwhile, maintains that internal surveys conducted by field teams show her own campaign in the lead with 56% of “high-propensity voters” who show up on election day.

On the national level, the election is an interesting test case for how progressive cities handle an increasingly reddening country. But for Oakland residents, a lot is riding on this election.

“When I bought a house in Oakland, I said it was because I want to die in Oakland,” Cook said, adding that he is part of that number who want the Town to succeed.