BOSTON (CN) — The American juror has emerged from quarantine with something of a makeover.
Since March, when the coronavirus ground most court trials to a halt, the average juror is now more likely to be a Trump fan: a young, white man with a conspicuous distrust of science, large institutions and criminal defendants.
Those are the findings of several recent studies by sociologists and by the court system itself.
“It’s young white guys who are most likely to show up” to jury duty these days, Valerie Hans, one of the country’s leading experts on the jury system, said in an interview.
Courts “will be clearly struggling to get anything like a representative cross-section of the community” on juries, said Hans, who is the Charles F. Rechlin professor of law at Cornell.
David Slayton, a Texas court administrator and past president of the National Association for Court Management, is worried. When juries skew too far in one direction, he warned, the results can be unfair.
“I’m concerned about who’s going to show up and the changing of the composition of the jury pool, which means we may need to do some special outreach to certain communities,” Slayton said.
Studies show that women, older people and people of color are more affected by the pandemic, making them far more likely to apply for a hardship exemption from jury service.
There are a number of reasons for this, said Beth Redbird, a sociologist at Northwestern University who runs the Covid-19 Social Change Lab, a program that surveys hundreds of people daily and tracks real-time attitudes toward the pandemic.
Once a reliable jury-room fixture in pre-pandemic times, older people now are more likely to have pre-existing conditions and be vulnerable to the virus.
Those who want to avoid a nursing home meanwhile are turning to younger women in their family for care and companionship. It’s also younger women who have disproportionately taken on additional caring responsibilities for children who can’t go to school or camp, as well any ailing family members.
Another hardship for women — as compared with past recessions that led to high unemployment among men in manufacturing jobs — is the pandemic-linked obliteration of service and retail jobs, sectors where they are overrepresented.
Both the recession and the disease have also disproportionately affected people of color.
In addition to actual hardships, women and people of color are also much more likely to be afraid of getting the virus, which will motivate them to ask for a hardship exemption in marginal cases, Redbird’s research suggests.
“Women will be far more worried about being summoned and far less happy about being asked to serve than men,” Redbird said in a video about her findings.
The result is that jury pools will consist largely of people who are not particularly afraid of getting sick, she said. And those people tend to be young, male and white.
Redbird also said that there is a clear correlation between lack of fear of the virus and support of President Trump. As a result, she said, juries will skew heavily toward Trump voters.
And “the changes we see now are not temporary,” she added. “The pandemic won’t just end. Even if we get a vaccine and it’s 50% effective, will people feel safe?” Redbird predicts that jury pools will be heavily skewed at least until mid-2021 and possibly much longer.
The Northwestern assistant professor’s research shows that there are other characteristics that are common to people who are less afraid of the virus and more likely to show up for jury service: