BOSTON (CN) — New England states eased their Covid lockdowns after the number of new cases dropped dramatically at the start of the year, but the decline has now plateaued and started to reverse — and experts say they’re afraid that there could be another major spike.
“We are already entering another sharp rise,” warned Samuel Scarpino, who researches infectious diseases and predictive modeling at Northeastern University in Boston.
“We’ve just seen a week of plateau and now two weeks of increase,” said David Rosman, president of the Massachusetts Medical Society.
“It’s very worrying,” added Usama Bilal, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University. “It seems like the beginning of a new wave of infections which may increase hospitalizations and subsequently deaths.”
The rise in cases appears to be due to a number of factors, from the easing of lockdowns to new virus variants and a widespread misperception that the disease is no longer as much of a concern.
Newly reported cases saw a huge spike in the fall and winter, rising from a low of 24,000 a day nationally in early September to a high of 313,000 in early January. But then they plummeted to about 50,000 by the beginning of March.
On March 2, Massachusetts reported only 301 new cases, down from thousands every day a couple months earlier. Other New England states saw similar dramatic declines.
With the drop in new cases and the beginning of the vaccine rollout, states began easing restrictions. Massachusetts replaced its strict rules for out-of-state travelers with a looser travel “advisory” and began allowing gatherings of 100 people indoors. Ballparks, overnight summer camps and dancing at weddings were once again permitted with some restrictions.
Vermont reopened bars and social clubs such as American Legion and VFW halls. Connecticut eliminated most capacity limits for restaurants, gyms, museums and churches. Maine relaxed rules for restaurants and bars and reopened self-service buffets. Rhode Island also raised the number of people allowed in restaurants, churches, bars and gyms.
But then the numbers stopped falling.
Connecticut’s seven-day moving average of new cases rose from 681 on March 8 to 1,217 on Sunday.
Massachusetts’ numbers are up 50% since early March and New Hampshire’s are up 69%.
On Saturday, Vermont reported its highest single-day number of the entire pandemic.
High numbers of new reported cases could in part be the result of increased testing, but what’s concerning is that the positivity rate (the percentage of tests that come back positive) is also up, suggesting that it’s not just that more tests are being given. The positivity rate in Connecticut spiked to 4.3% last week.
“This is partially the result of having opened indoor dining too early,” said Bilal. “The northeast has had indoor dining open for a couple months now in some cases, and a report by the CDC earlier this month showed that areas that reopen indoor dining see increases in cases and deaths 40 to 80 days after reopening.”
Universities inviting students back to their dormitories has also led to outbreaks, he said.
Reopening increases exposure in and of itself, but it also creates the impression that there’s less need to worry, which can make people less careful about following basic precautions, experts note.
“It's the thought that if something is open, then it must be safe,” said Cassandra Pierre, an epidemiologist at Boston Medical Center.
“Most people these days are feeling like they’re done with Covid, but Covid isn’t done with us,” said Rosman. “Everyone wants to believe that this is over, and nobody wants to hear it or say it or do it, but people need to hold off for two more months.”
