McConnell retires and Massie feuds with Trump, setting stage for a dramatic Kentucky primary

(CN) — Voters in the Bluegrass State head to the polls on Tuesday for a primary that will test Kentuckians’ loyalty to President Donald Trump.

Thomas Massie, the Republican U.S. representative from the 4th District, has refused to toe the party line and consistently rankles Trump and his most ardent supporters on issues from the war in Iran to the Epstein files.

Massie has represented northern and north-central Kentucky since 2012 but now faces a primary challenger endorsed by the president, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein.

The Massie-Gallrein race is one of the most expensive primaries in the history of the United States, with spending topping $25 million.

Steve Voss, associate professor and publicity director of the political science department at the University of Kentucky, told Courthouse News the state’s primaries are setting up showdowns for Republicans.

“Voters in the 4th Congressional District and increasingly in the Senate race are being asked to choose between party unity and a candidate pledging fealty to Trump’s agenda, versus a candidate favored more by party activists who care about ideological purity,” Voss said.

Gallrein was relatively unknown before deciding to take on Massie, but Voss doesn’t see that as a crucial factor in the primary.

“I don’t think it matters what type of name recognition Gallrein has stacked up, because what matters is the extent to which voters are aware of Massie’s role as a maverick Republican who occasionally serves as thorn in Trump’s side,” he said.

Until recently, polling showed Massie in front of Gallrein by several points, but a Quantus Insights poll released May 13 gave Gallrein an eight-point advantage.

Conducted among 908 likely Republican primary voters, the poll showed Gallrein with 53% over Massie with 45%, once undecided voters who “leaned” one way or the other were factored in.

Democrats vie to flip Senate seat

Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, in office since 1985 and now 84, announced he would step down in February 2025, creating a slim chance for Democrats to nab a crucial seat in the U.S. Senate.

There are now two candidates from both parties hoping to replace him, with frontrunners emerging in recent weeks.

Trump endorsed Republican U.S. Representative Andy Barr on May 1, prompting previous favorite Nate Morris to drop out and accept an ambassadorship in the president’s administration.

Opposing Barr is former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who despite a strong start has seen support dwindle since the president’s endorsement.

A new poll conducted by UpONE Insights from May 9-11 on Barr’s behalf gave him a 19-point lead over Cameron.

“The Senate race didn’t begin as party loyalty versus ideological purity, when there were three candidates vying for the Trump mantle. But now that Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind Andy Barr, the Senate race is shaping up to look like a statewide version of the Fourth District race,” Voss said.

On the Democratic side, state Representative Charles Booker has a sizeable lead over Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot who lost to McConnell in the 2020 election by 20 points despite raising over $32 million more than her opponent.

Democrats are hopeful Booker’s experience can make the difference this time around in the general election. His 18-point lead in a March poll conducted by Emerson College has him in the driver’s seat.

“The best evidence a Democrat can win in Kentucky is that the state has elected Democrats for governor in four of the last five elections,” Voss said. “But here’s the caveat: Voters approach gubernatorial elections differently from how they approach congressional elections.

“The state’s voters typically dislike the national Democrats. It’s not that all of these people that keep voting Republican in Kentucky necessarily identify with the GOP, but they do reject in large number the national Democratic Party. And that’s why you can get an outcome like an Andy Beshear gubernatorial victory,” he continued.

U.S. House seat opens up

Barr’s decision to run for Senate means his congressional seat in the 6th District is up for grabs, and the race has attracted both experienced and outsider candidates from each party.

Zach Dembo, whom Voss called a “rising star” of the Democratic party, is a former Navy judge advocate general officer raised in Lexington, the heart of the district.

“Dembo has attracted solid financing and key endorsements, including most recently the Lexington Herald-Leader,” Voss said.

Cherlynn Stevenson, the more experienced Democratic candidate, is a former state representative with solid name recognition. She has promised to “work across the aisle” if elected.

Voss was quick to point out there’s no guarantee the primary will come down to Dembo and Stevenson. Other Democratic candidates include David Kloiber, who ran for Lexington mayor, and Erin Petrey, who has garnered support from activists outside the mainstream.

Republicans Ralph Alvarado and Ryan Dotson are the two main candidates on the conservative side of the primary.

Alvarado served as commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health for the past several years, while Dotson is a state representative. Neither has generated significant buzz in the lead-up to the primary.

Voss said the lack of a standout candidate isn’t quite as important in a congressional race, though, compared with Senate elections.

“Partisanship tends to matter more in House races because the candidates tend to be less well-known, so people use the shortcut of the ‘D’ and the ‘R,’” he said. “Senate races are much higher profile, so parties have a much better chance of pulling an upset in a Senate race where voters are going to get a clear choice between two candidates they come to know decently well.”

Voss said Democrats have targeted the 6th District as a priority for this election cycle.

“If anything, relative to other contests of the same level, we might see the 6th District race get the disproportionate investment,” he said. “With the Senate race, any Senate race is critical given the nature of the country. The battlefield favors the Republicans, but the context favors the Democrats. I’d be surprised is the Kentucky Senate race is neglected, but there are a lot of important Senate races.”

November’s midterms will establish control of Congress, and Kentucky’s races will play a crucial role regardless of which candidates secure their parties’ nominations.

“To the extent that Democrats can make the Kentucky Senate race a live race, that diverts Republican resources from other places. If you look at Kentucky Senate races, a lot of the financing comes from outside the state. It comes from the same donors in California and New York and Texas who fund contests all over the country,” Voss said.

“For the Democrats to swing the Senate would be a gamechanger. If they hold the House, they already have a veto of the Republicans, but if they take the Senate, they have a veto over Donald Trump appointments, including to the judiciary. So much hinges on what happens to the Senate, and it’s going to be a focal point across the country,” he said.

Early, in-person voting in Kentucky began Thursday, with each county opening several polling locations for limited hours. Polls will be open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.

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