Local elections test UK's main parties as hard-right rises

LONDON (AFP) — U.K. voters went to the polls in local elections Thursday tipped to inflict losses on the country’s two main parties and confirm the rise of hard-right populists, portending the splintering of a centurylong political duopoly.

The polls in England are the first since Keir Starmer became Labour prime minister and Kemi Badenoch took over at the helm of the struggling opposition Conservatives last year.

The anti-immigrant Reform UK party is expected to make gains, as are the centrist Liberal Democrats and left-wing Greens, confirming a trend that Britain is entering an era of multi-party politics.

Urging people to vote Labour, Starmer said in a message on X Thursday: “The choice is clear. Labour councilors, mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain. Or chaos and division with parties who have no plan for change.”

In her final message, Badenoch sought to drum up support for her Tories, saying: “If you want a great council, don’t just hope for it, vote for it.”

“British politics appears to be fragmenting,” political scientist John Curtice wrote in the Telegraph this week, adding the polls “will likely be the first in which as many as five parties are serious players.”

British politics have been dominated by the center-left Labour party and center-right Tories since the early 20th century.

But surveys show Britons are disillusioned with the two establishment parties amid anemic economic growth, high levels of irregular immigration and flagging public services.

Labour won a parliamentary majority in July with just 33.7% of the vote, the lowest share for any party winning a general election since World War II.

The Conservatives won just 24% of the vote, securing only 121 seats in the 650-seat parliament as the party endured its worst-ever election defeat.

Reform UK, led by Euroskeptic politician Nigel Farage, picked up five seats, an unprecedented haul for a British hard-right party, while the Liberal Democrats won 61 more seats than at the previous election and the Greens quadrupled their representation to four.

Those results mean “fragmentation is baked in” to Thursday’s council, mayoral, and single parliamentary vote, according to political scientist Rob Ford.

“We will see losses from the Tories and Labour, but not equally,” the University of Manchester politics professor told AFP.

A total of 1,641 seats across local authorities are up for grabs on Thursday — only a fraction of England’s 17,000 councilors — as are six mayoral posts and a parliamentary seat in the northwest English area of Runcorn and Helsby.

Squeezed on both sides

Farage’s party is the bookmakers’ favorite to win the parliamentary by-election.

Labour has faced criticism over welfare cuts and tax rises during a difficult return to power following 14 years in opposition, while Starmer’s popularity has tanked in opinion polls.

Starmer’s task in Runcorn is made more difficult by the vote being sparked by Labour Minister Mike Amesbury quitting after receiving a suspended jail sentence for punching a man.

Labour won the constituency with a 53% vote share last year, while Reform got just 18%, but Starmer has acknowledged it will be “tough” to win.

On Tuesday, Reform UK topped a YouGov poll of voting intentions in Britain with 26%, three points ahead of Labour and six up on the Conservatives.

Victory in Runcorn, winning mayoralties like Greater Lincolnshire and putting hundreds of councilors in place would help Reform UK spread its grassroots activism before the next general election — which is likely in 2029.

Polls opened at 7 a.m. and were due to close at 10 p.m. (5 p.m. EDT) with results due to start coming in on Friday morning.

Under threat from Reform on the right, the Tories are also being squeezed on the left by the Liberal Democrats, the traditional third party, which hopes for gains in the wealthy south.

As Labour edges rightwards it is facing a growing challenge from the Greens on the left.

“For the big parties, it’s like the couple who are having to wrestle with the duvet that’s too small,” said Ford. “Wherever they pull the duvet, they’re going to get exposed somewhere.”

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By PETER HUTCHISON Agence France-Presse