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Thursday, April 25, 2024 | Back issues
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Illinois prepares for contentious primaries in new districts

In races across the state, both Republicans and Democrats face a referendum on their internal divisions.

CHICAGO (CN) — In Illinois, with primary elections a little over two weeks away, Democrats and Republicans are struggling with their own internecine conflicts as they prepare for election night on June 28.

Three contests in particular — for the 1st, 6th and 15th Congressional Districts — demonstrate how much the parties are wrestling with themselves as much as each other.

In the first, retiring incumbent Bobby Rush’s seat is being fought over by more than 20 candidates, most of them Democrats looking to realize their vision for the party in one of the country’s most solidly blue arenas.

The sixth district race pits the progressive Marie Newman against the more moderate Sean Casten, while a handful of local Republican politicians are hoping to upset south Chicagoland’s Democratic status quo.

And in the rural 15th Congressional District, found beyond Chicago’s extended political borders, both Republican candidates have claimed Trump’s support. But some observers wonder if the Trump-aligned wing of the GOP is capable of wielding power as successfully as the Republican old guard did.

“It is … worth noting that all three races illustrate the ideological divisions within and between parties,” said Robert Evans, a professor of business and political science at Illinois’ Rockford University.

This year’s particularly embattled primaries are a result of Illinois’ recent congressional redistricting. Following the 2020 census, Illinois learned it would be losing one of its 18 seats in Congress.

The Democrat-dominated state legislature cycled through a number of proposed maps for the new districts before settling on one that entirely eliminated the seat held by Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who chose not to run for reelection, and significantly altered the remaining 17 districts’ borders to benefit Democrats, who have regularly controlled 13 of the last decade’s 18 districts.

T\he new map could see the party picking up a seat — only three of the 17 new districts are solidly GOP.

“This will be the most gerrymandered map in the country,” Illinois state Representative Jeff Keicher, a Republican from Sycamore, said last October during the vote to confirm the new map.

But some Democrats are struggling with the new map as well, as the race for the new 6th Congressional District demonstrates. The primary pits current 3rd District Representative Marie Newman against fellow Democrat Sean Casten, the sitting representative of the current 6th District.

Both representatives’ districts will cease to exist in their current forms come November, with much of Casten’s current turf being rolled in to the new 3rd, 8th and 11th Congressional Districts. Newman will retain more of her territory, with much of the old 3rd will be incorporated into the new 6th.

“It’s an interesting dynamic, [Newman] running against another incumbent,” said Sibel Oktay, Director of the School of Politics and International Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

The pair are casualties of the Democrats’ political calculus, Evans said, as the party moves to secure the Latino vote in northern Illinois. Latino Illinoisans comprised about 19% of the state’s total population in 2020, and Evans said it was a smarter move to have two white representatives square off than to pit Newman against fellow progressive Jesús “Chuy” García, whose Latino-majority 4th Congressional District borders her own.

García will likely keep his seat in the new deep-blue Fourth District, as he is currently running unopposed in the district’s Democratic primary.

“In order to make room for a Latino district, something had to give,” Evans said. “They found room by shuffling Casten’s district.”

The contest between Casten and Newman is also indicative of the ideological split in the Democratic party. While Casten’s platform is fairly liberal — he calls for extensive police reform, improvements to the Affordable Care Act and protections of reproductive rights — Newman stands a good deal to his left.

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She advocates Medicare for All, worker representation on company boards and guaranteed paid family leave. The Chicago Sun-Times reported in May that Casten led Newman between 36% and 27% in the polls, numbers that didn’t surprise Evans or Oktay given both candidates’ positions and histories.

While Casten became the first Democrat to represent the 6th District in over 40 years when beat GOP incumbent Peter Roskam in 2018, Newman came to power in the 3rd District by ousting the powerful conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski in 2020. Evans said lingering animosity may impact how the party — and conservative Democratic primary voters in the district — see her.

“He’s going to be welcomed as a dragon slayer. She’ll be seen as an upstart,” he said.

Oktay said there was another issue which may hurt Newman’s standing in the party, if not among most voters: her criticism of Israel. Newman was one of only eight House Democrats to vote against funding Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system last year, and in January criticized the ongoing eviction of Palestinian residents of the Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah to make room for Israeli settlers.

Oktay said she doubted these issues would be at the forefront of most Illinois voters’ minds, but opined it may cost her among more committed Democratic partisans. Already, Oktay pointed out, Newman has lost the backing of J Street, a prominent pro-Israel PAC that has instead chosen to endorse Casten.

“[Newman] was endorsed by J Street in 2020, but now they’ve dropped her and they're endorsing Casten,” Oktay said.

Oktay also raised the possibility that neither candidate would take the seat. The new 6th Congressional District will incorporate some conservative suburban areas, which may flip Republican if Democrats are particularly unlucky this November.

“We expect the seat will stay with Democrats, but if there is a red wave they may not go back to congress at all,” Oktay said.

The Democrats’ internal strife is also visible in the crowded race for the new 1st Congressional District, which stretches across a large swathe of the South Side of Chicago and into the southwest Chicagoland suburbs. The open seat left by Bobby Rush has attracted 17 Democratic and four Republican contenders, the majority of whom are Black. As the 1st District is both one of only three majority-Black districts in the state and one of its most consistently Democratic territories, competition is stiff.

Some big names in Illinois politics are gunning for the seat, including Chicago City Council member Pat Dowell and the more left-leaning local activist Jahmal Cole, founder of the Chicago community organizing nonprofit My Block My Hood My City.

“When there are fewer seats, the competition for those seats gets fiercer,” Evans said.

Deepening that competition, the adjacent new 2nd District will take on more white suburban areas south of Chicago this November, and may not have the same Black majority as its current iteration. It only increases the importance of the 1st District seat as a Black voice in Illinois, and Evans said whichever faction of Democrats wins there will have the chance to cement their influence in the Chicago area, and choose what that voice says, for years to come.

Bobby Rush himself is a testament to the strength of incumbency in the district, having represented it since 1993. In 2000 he even beat a primary challenge from former President Barack Obama by more than 30 points.

South of Chicago, the new 15th Congressional District is as Republican as the 1st District is Democratic. It will wrap around much of the rural center of the state, specifically avoiding a corridor of urban and suburban areas stretching from East St. Louis through Springfield to Champaign-Urbana. It’s this omission that might give current 15th Rep. Mary Miller an edge over her challenger and fellow Republican, current 13th District Rep. Rodney Davis.

Compared to Davis’ current district, which includes the central-Illinois cities, Miller’s 15th District covering much of Illinois’ rural southeast is whiter, righter and Trumpier. The former president carried the 15th by more than 70% in both 2016 and 2020, and while both Miller and Davis have claimed Trump’s support — Davis even co-chaired his 2020 Illinois campaign — only Miller has anything material to show for it.

“Mary has my complete and total endorsement!” Trump said on New Year’s Day, 2022.

“[Davis’] positions have been slightly more moderate,” Evans said. “He has districts for which he has to tack left to win … [Miller’s] got an impeccable Trumpist record, and Trump can’t lose in that district.”

But Evans also added that he wasn’t sure the Trump wing of the GOP could develop a constructive governing strategy. He opined that as an ideology, Trump thought is primarily defined by what it opposes, not by what it advocates — and that bodes poorly for a wing of the party that may soon find itself eclipsing the GOP’s more genteel elder generations.

Meanwhile, voters on the ground often have a different perspective from that of political analysts. It’s a view that doesn’t always look kindly on either Republicans or Democrats.

Nine in 10 U.S. adults say they do not trust the federal government, a Pew Research Center survey found this June, with about three-quarters doubting their congressional representatives could help them with their problems. One voter in Chicago said elections regularly felt more like a reality TV competition than a judgment of potential public servants.

“Elections shouldn’t feel like a marketing competition between two massively wealthy mega corporations, but they do,” Chicago voter and former Illinois Democratic vote canvasser Harper Rothschild said.

Rothschild said he was unsure who we was planning to vote for in the upcoming primaries. Within the last decade, he said he felt the act of voting had become more about the principle of civic duty than anything else. As the days to June 28 count down, he added that he hopes his state's representatives gave him some reason to vote besides fulfilling that duty.

“At this point, it’s more about principle than the change that I believe will result from my vote,” he said.

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