Impeachment Probe a Wildcard for Both Parties in 2020 Campaign

Between the Trump Make American Great Again Committee and Donald J. Trump for President Inc., the president’s re-election campaign spent $12.2 million on Google Ads this year, according to the tech giant’s transparency report. Trump also spent $15 million on Facebook ads, according to the website’s ad library. The campaign spent $1.27 million on Facebook in November, including $266,100 spent on Nov. 13 – the first day of the public impeachment hearings.

Some see dollar signs, others see votes.

“The Pelosi impeachment scheme has enraged our voters at the grassroots level, which is why you’re seeing record-breaking fundraising for the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee,” said Brett Buerck, CEO of the consulting firm Majority Strategies.

“That’s not spin, that’s real-time feedback from Republicans who are voting with their wallets,” Buerck added. “When the story of the 2020 election cycle is finally written, I’m confident we’ll owe a debt of gratitude to House Democrats.”

Mark Bauerlein, an English professor at Emory University and Trump supporter, described the inquiry as a weak attempt “to disable the president.”

“I think that the impeachment is going to hurt the Democrats politically,” Bauerlein said. “This pleases the bases of course, but the goal here is to reach that squishy middle, that's where the elections are decided – with moderate liberals.”

The president continues to tweet daily updates on his opinion of the impeachment inquiry and his re-election campaign.

"The Republican Party, and me, had a GREAT day yesterday with respect to the phony Impeachment Hoax, & yet, when I got home to the White House & checked out the news coverage on much of television, you would have no idea they were reporting on the same event,” Trump wrote on Nov. 21. “FAKE & CORRUPT NEWS!"

Many Republican lawmakers have picked up Trump’s strategy of discrediting the impeachment entirely, from downplaying witness testimony as hearsay to dismissing Trump’s orders to “talk to my personal lawyer” as mere interpretations. While this strategy may play to the Republican base, it also comes with long-lasting consequences.

“It leads people to be skeptical of information and calling it fake news essentially is saying don't believe what you read,” cautioned Bose, the Hofstra University professor. “A democracy is supposed to be founded on the will by the people and we want the electorate to be informed, to get news, and make decisions for themselves.”

Others worry about the long-lasting impacts of polarization.

“The political atmosphere is so poison right now that hyperpartisanship rules. That's unfortunate and the impeachment inquiry is obviously just throwing acid on the wound,” said Michael Genovese, political science professor and president of Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University.

While about half of Americans agree the impeachment inquiry should move forward, the opinions are largely divided by party. As of Nov. 20, the aggregator website FiveThirtyEight reported 82% of Democrats supported the inquiry – and just 10% of Republicans.

Playing to the middle

Genovese supports Democratic presidential candidate Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, whose centrist strategies have been not popular enough to qualify him for recent primary debates.

“Bennet doesn't take extreme positions, he's very thoughtful, he's very rational. He sees all the signs and he tries to sort of be a unifying figure,” Genovese said. “That's not what the political domain is looking for right now. It may be what we need, but what we like is someone who bashes the opponent.”

Bennet, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has long cautioned against drawing conclusions before the completion of the impeachment investigation. Bennet is also skeptical that any articles of impeachment will be passed by the Republican-led senate.

And so his recent messages weren’t aimed at voters so much as potential allies across the aisle. In response to a clip of U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland’s testimony Bennet tweeted, “Now the question is: Will my Republican colleagues stand up and defend our Constitution?”

With early caucuses and primaries months away, both Democratic and Republican candidates vying for races in 2020 are playing to their bases – except swing-state senators who can’t. That includes Democratic Senator Doug Jones in Alabama, Republican Maine Senator Susan Collins, and Republican Colorado Senator Cory Gardner.

“If you want to be re-elected you don't want to go against your constituents; if you want to be able to have opportunities and perks from leadership you don't go against your party,” Ceisler, the former Democratic political consultant, said.

A University of Colorado poll of 800 voters in November found more Coloradans – including purple-state Republicans – supported the impeachment inquiry than the national population.

“For Cory Gardner, if for some reason he voted yes on conviction, he just bought himself a Republican primary, but if he votes no and the feeling of Coloradans is that the case was made against Trump, that just energizes voters more than anything,” Ceisler explained.

The Centennial State’s popular former governor John Hickenlooper and progressive Andrew Romanoff are leading the Democratic charge for Gardner’s seat in 2020. But Gardner’s next move, like many other Republicans, largely depends on the next witness’ testimony.

“On the Republican side right now, people are just trying to figure out how to tread water because there seems to be more and more information coming out every day that is bad,” said Washington-based Republican strategist Liz Mair.

“I think people are trying to figure out what that's going to do to the president's poll numbers, how that impacts their poll numbers,” she added. Those factors will determine “whether they need to move towards being more supportive for interest in impeachment.”

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