(CN) – In Kansas, the politics of health care may be the dominant factor in determining if the historically red state will turn a shade of blue on Nov. 6.
Democrats have seemingly found a foothold in the Sunflower State thanks to a combination of disapproval of President Donald Trump and concerns that Republicans in Congress will allow insurers to increase premiums on people with pre-existing medical conditions.
The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take over the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives. Places like the Kansas 3rd Congressional District could be key to seeing the House flip.
3rd Congressional District
In the 3rd Congressional District race, Democrat Sharice Davids leads incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in recent polls, and political analysis website FiveThirtyEight gives her a 77 percent chance of winning the seat.
The more moderate 3rd District includes Johnson County, the wealthiest and most educated county in the state, where 55 percent of residents have at least a bachelor's degree. It's one of the few Kansas districts Hillary Clinton won in her 2016 presidential run.
Yoder, a former lawyer who is running for his fifth term will face off against Davids, an attorney and former mixed martial arts fighter.
The GOP has seemingly lost faith in Yoder's ability to win re-election. The National Republican Congressional Committee withdrew $1.2 million in campaign funding for the incumbent in early October.
Yoder, however, still has the backing of The Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest conservative super PAC in the country. The group has spent nearly $2.5 million in local TV advertising.
Democrats in Kansas and across the country have campaigned on health care, focusing on the Republicans' efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
Yoder has voted multiple times to repeal the ACA though he says he wants to keep the provisions that protect people with pre-existing conditions. He's a co-sponsor of the Pre-Existing Conditions Protection Act, a bill that requires insurers to accept patients if the ACA is repealed.
At a campaign stop on Monday in Kansas City, Davids criticized Yoder’s voting record.
"When I think about what health care and access to health care means, it has to mean that we protect folks with pre-existing conditions," Davids said.
Kathleen Sebilius, former Kansas governor and Health and Human Services secretary, joined Davids at the stop. She noted Yoder voted 50 times to repeal the ACA.
"It’s incredibly important that people be educated and not buy the line from politicians who try and say 'My record is not my record. My votes are not my votes. 'Believe me. I will always protect your care,’” Sebilius said. “Nothing could be further from the truth."
Connie Graves, a 72-year-old retiree, said although she voted for Yoder in the past, she's decided to vote for Davids this time due to his stance on health care.
"There's a lot not to like about Obamacare, but it seems he wants to throw out the baby with the bath water," Graves said of Yoder.
Low turnout is not expected to be a problem in Johnson County. According to the county's election office, a record-breaking 416,000 people are registered to vote, though Election Commissioner Ronnie Metsker says he predicts about 200,000 will show up on Election Day.