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(CN) — France’s François Bayrou survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday, paving the way for France to adopt its long-awaited 2025 budget.
The bill was months behind schedule, most parties didn’t support it and Bayrou remains far from having the support of a majority in Parliament. But amid months of legislative chaos, the adoption of the budget and Bayrou’s mere survival seems miraculous — which speaks to the current state of French politics.
“François Bayrou … is succeeding where [former Prime Minister] Michel Barnier had failed, and he’s taking advantage of this momentarily, which probably allows him to gain time to implement the budget, take a certain number of measures to implement the laws, and perhaps to start a certain number of legislative projects,” Olivier Rouquan, a political scientist and researcher at the Study and Research Center for Administrative and Political Sciences, told Courthouse News. “If he doesn’t make any mistakes, it allows him to stay in power probably for a few months.”
On Monday, Bayrou rammed the budget bill through Parliament by using the controversial 49.3 constitutional article, which allows legislation to be pushed through without a vote. The measure remains a touchy subject after French President Emmanuel Macron used it to implement controversial pension reforms that triggered months of protests throughout the country two years ago.
“This is the hour of truth, this is the week of truth and responsibility,” Bayrou told the National Assembly on Monday. “No country can survive without a budget and France less than others … . Is this budget perfect? No. Nobody finds it perfect. It is a balance. We are faced with our duty and the decision is in your hands.”
Bayrou is France’s fourth prime minister in roughly a year. The country has yet to find its political footing after Macron abruptly dissolved the governmentand called for snap elections in June. After months of uncertainty, it doesn’t matter if Bayrou is hanging on by a thread — hanging on at all is inspiring some confidence.
That’s not to say that the prime minister is a widely popular figure.
On Wednesday, Bayrou narrowly avoided the motion of no-confidence that would have brought down the government again. Although most of the leading parties were against the bill, the power was largely in the hands of the Socialists, who ultimately decided not to join the rest of the left — France Unbowed, Communists and the Greens — in the motion of censure.
The motion concerning the budget gathered 128 votes, well short of the 289 votes needed to topple the government; the Senate will vote on the measure Thursday, when it is expected to pass.
“[France Unbowed leader] Jean-Luc Mélenchon is furious with the Socialists,” Olivier Costa, a director at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, told Courthouse News. “He wants to force Emmanuel Macron to resign, while the Socialists have more of a sense of responsibility; they know very well that if there is another censorship, it will create a truly inextricable political crisis."
The Socialists essentially reasoned that an unsatisfactory budget would be better than no budget and no government. This created a deep fissure between them and the other left-wing parties, which campaigned under the New Popular Front coalition and have been fighting to keep the alliance strong.
“It’s a passage for reasons of economic realism, and the political parties and governability of France, which needs a budget,” Rouquan said. “So that doesn’t mean that there’s an adherence to a governmental political project, it’s a little different — it’s a choice of realism.”
France is sinking deeper and deeper into a public deficit, which was roughly 6.1% of its GDP in 2024. The European Union’s fiscal rules dictate that members keep levels below 3%.
This was Bayrou’s first major hurdle but won’t be his last.
Costa believes that immigration could be a looming threat to the prime minister’s position. Bruno Retailleau, France’s interior minister, wants to introduce a more restrictive law on immigration.
Such a measure is a red line for the Socialists, who threatened to topple the government when Bayrou said that France is “flooded” with immigrants last month. A law would surely find itself subject to censure by the left. On the flip side, the extreme-right National Rally would likely not find the new law restrictive enough, also subjecting it to censure.
If both sides backed a motion of no confidence, Bayrou’s government would fall immediately. This is just one example of the fragility of France’s current governing body. And the fragility might prompt Bayrou to simply coast through the next few months.
“Nobody knows what Bayrou wants to do; he doesn’t really have a program and even in his majority, everyone is wondering a little bit what the next topic is,” Costa said. “We’re a little afraid that Bayrou will be waiting and not managing anything … because he knows that he doesn’t have a majority and that all the topics he’s going to put on the table are going to create new divisions and new coalitions.”
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