I’ve been known to dabble in some sports wagering from time to time and I’ve placed enough bets to know that there is never a sure thing. But tonight, we may have something close to it.
It’s not a basketball or hockey game. My five-star play tonight is taking the over on the number of false statements made by President Donald Trump during his national address on border security.
The number is set at a modest 3.5 false statements and the money totals on the over have skyrocketed throughout the day (from -155 this morning to -320, according to Bookmaker at the time of this writing). That means in order to make $100, you would have to spend $320 on the over.
In making this a five-star pick, I’ve analyzed this in ways similar to the way I would analyze the over/under in a football or basketball game (I went a sizzling 3-1 on the NFL playoffs this weekend).
In sports, you take into account offensive and defensive strengths, where the game is played, weather conditions, injuries and trends. This speech has many of those same features.
Here, you have a desperate president in the midst of an embarrassing government shutdown that is his own doing. He’s going to use harsh, sensational language in an attempt to energize a gullible support base.
Throw in the fact that Trump has said on numerous occasions that Mexico would pay for his promised border wall and now he’s trying to sell his cultish following that shutting down the government in a thinly veiled temper tantrum over funding is the only way to pay for it, and you have a perfect storm of false statements.
Trump’s “false statements” are also a trend. Throughout his term, Trump has declared that he is the No. 1 expert on taxes, construction, campaign finance, drones, technology, U.S. history, infrastructure, the Islamic State, Facebook, renewables, polls, courts, steel workers, golf, banks, nuclear arms, debt and politicians. That false bravado is sure to be in full effect tonight.
The other thing to look for in a sports contest is the referees. Especially in football, if a certain crew is prone to calling more pass interference penalties for example, then that could lead to more offense.
Tonight’s officiating crew for Trump is the Washington Post. Let’s just say they are the political equivalent of a pass interference-happy officiating crew. They won’t let Trump slide.
So given all of these factors, and the fact that Trump appears to be so mentally unhinged that he can’t tell truth from fiction, I recommend a play on the over even at -320.
As always, recommendations are for entertainment only and the Courthouse News does not endorse gambling of any kind. Good luck!