Fertility Declines in European Union

As a result of low fertility and an aging population, the European Union will have more deaths than births after 2015, predicts the EU’s statistics agency. The report, issued Tuesday, predicts that the percentage of people 80 or older with almost triple by 2060, and claims that even immigration will not be enough to offset the population’s decline.

     The EU currently has a population of 495 million people. It is expected to hit a ceiling of 521 million people in 2035, then decline to 506 million people in 2060, and will continue to fall.
     All countries in the EU will have an aging population. People aged 65 years and older currently make up 17.1 percent of the EU27’s population, but are expected to reach 30% in 2060. The same applies to people aged 80 and over, who are expected to skyrocket from 4.4% to 12.1% during the same period.
     The old-age dependency ratio, which is calculated by dividing the population of 65 years and older by the working population, will jump from 25% in 2008 to 53% in 2060. This means that in 2060, each worker will be financing more than half of another person, on average.
     By 2060, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to reach over 60% in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia. These countries all have a much slower population growth than the EU27 average.
     The countries with the strongest population gains are Ireland, the United Kingdom and Denmark which are predicted to an old-age dependency ratio below 45% in 2060.
      The EU currently has a population of 495 million people compared to the United States which has a population of 300 million.

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