Emerson poll shows Democratic upside in 2026 Senate races in Maine, New Hampshire

(CN) — Emerson College Polling released surveys of likely voters in Maine and New Hampshire Thursday, highlighting potential challenges for Republicans in two key 2026 U.S. Senate contests.

In Maine, oyster farmer Graham Platner holds a strong lead in the Democratic primary against Governor Janet Mills, 55% to 28%, with 13% undecided. In a news release, Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball called the gap “significant” and “outside the poll’s margin of error.” Platner performs especially well among men (63% to 22%).

In hypothetical general election matchups against three-term Republican Senator Susan Collins, both Democrats lead. Platner tops Collins 48% to 41% (12% someone else/undecided), while Mills leads 46% to 43% (11% undecided/someone else). Collins’ favorability is deeply underwater: 38% favorable to 57% unfavorable. Mills also runs negative (40% favorable, 54% unfavorable), while Platner is slightly net positive (42% favorable to 38% unfavorable).

The results suggest Collins could face a difficult reelection in the purple state if Democrats unify behind either candidate.

“This is representative of what we’ve seen around the country, where incumbents’ approval rating and favorability seem to be low, and we see this both with Collins and Mills,” Kimball further explained in a television interview Thursday. Kimball noted Platner also secured the endorsements of Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, “endorsements that are going to carry the day.”

In New Hampshire, former Senator John Sununu leads the Republican primary with 48% to former Senator Scott Brown’s 19%, but 33% remain undecided. In the general election, Sununu is statistically tied with Democratic Representative Chris Pappas: Pappas 45%, Sununu 44% (5% someone else, 6% undecided). Pappas leads Brown by a wider 48% to 39% margin.

Demographic splits in the Pappas-Sununu matchup show clear divides. Women favor Pappas 49% to 40%; men prefer Sununu 48% to 42%. Voters under 40 back Pappas by 23 points (54% to 31%), while those in their 50s and 60s tilt toward Sununu by 12 points.

“Maine is one of the top states for Democratic pickups trying to knock off Susan Collins, New Hampshire is one of the top states for a Republican pickup, because it’s an open seat now,” Kimball said, adding that both races are “statistically a toss-up” due to the number of undecided voters.

Broader approval ratings in New Hampshire reflect dissatisfaction with Washington. President Donald Trump sits at 41% approve to 55% disapprove (even weaker among independents). Democratic Senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen also post low approvals in the mid-to-upper 30s.

Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential contest, where New Hampshire traditionally holds the first primary election, Vice President JD Vance leads the Republican primary field with 43% support among GOP primary voters, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 18%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 6% and 20% undecided.

On the Democratic side, the field is more fragmented: former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leads with 20%, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Governor Gavin Newsom each receive 12%, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly gets 10%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris trails at 8%, with 24% undecided.

Emerson College noted with months until Election Day, these early surveys remain fluid, particularly the high undecided share in New Hampshire’s GOP primary. Candidate announcements, national trends and campaign developments could shift the landscape significantly.

The polls, conducted March 21-23, surveyed 1,075 likely voters in Maine and 1,000 in New Hampshire, each with a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

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