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Friday, April 19, 2024 | Back issues
Courthouse News Service Courthouse News Service

Day of reckoning in California for Newsom, recall bid

Tuesday's recall ballot contains just two questions: Should Governor Gavin Newsom be recalled, and if yes, who should replace him.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — Capping a frenzied final week of the recall campaign that featured pitches from current and former presidents and governors, California voters hit the polls Tuesday to decide Governor Gavin Newsom’s political fate.

Newsom and the Democrats believe their registration advantage can stomp out the Republican-led gubernatorial recall attempt, which is just the second to qualify for the ballot in California history. Republicans meanwhile hope the power of direct democracy can revive a party that has essentially gone dormant amid the state’s decades-long progressive shift.  

Heading into the recall election, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1. Voters haven't elected a GOP governor since 2006.

Stats and trends aside, if just a simple majority of voters answer yes to the recall question, a Republican is all but certain to take over the reins of the nation’s most liberal state.

Nationally Democrats are paying close attention to California, including the head of the party who likened Republican frontrunner and conservative talk show host Larry Elder to his predecessor.

"You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor, or you get Donald Trump," President Joe Biden told voters late Monday at a Newsom campaign event. "The rest of America is counting on you and so am I."

Early voting has been ongoing for weeks as all 22 million registered voters received a ballot via mail, but millions across the Golden State lined up Tuesday to answer the question of “Newsom or someone else” the old fashioned way.

In one of the state’s last Republican strongholds in California’s agricultural belt, Courthouse News found a mixed bag when asked about Newsom’s performance.

Outside a voting station in Visalia, a farming community that serves as the seat for Tulare County, Jessica Garcia gleefully exclaimed she had “absolutely voted for Newsom,” and told all her friends and family to do likewise.

“He’s done a fantastic job and he actually cares about people, unlike some others running. It would be really bad if people kick him out,” she said.

Other Tulare County residents were more eager to see a change at the top, including James Ford who said his local plumbing business never recovered from Newsom’s strict pandemic orders.

“I voted to recall Newsom; he acts like there’s one set of rules for people like him and another for the rest of us,” said Ford. “That’s why he was so quick to shut everything down for Covid — he knew he would be all right.”

A pair of signs spotted near a voting location calling to replace California Governor Gavin Newsom with conservative talk radio host Larry Elder in the September recall election. (Dustin Manduffie/Courthouse News)

Newsom has been a public servant for the last two decades, but before politics he became a millionaire through his involvement with a successful chain of wine stores and restaurants in San Francisco and the Napa Valley. Since becoming governor in 2019, Newsom has put his ownership interests in the wine and tourism ventures into a blind trust. Nonetheless, critics have routinely criticized and accused Newsom of crafting and skirting rules to benefit himself and the wine industry as a whole.

In perhaps the most damaging and obvious gaffe of his first term, Newsom was photographed at a swanky Napa Valley dinner party this past fall at a time when Californians weren’t supposed to be mingling outside their households. Critics said the “French Laundry” incident proved Newsom felt he was above the very pandemic rules he issued and the controversial dinner helped land the recall on the ballot.

Visalia voter Anthony Thomas said he originally thought Newsom was handling Covid-19 well and didn’t mind the lockdowns, but the French Laundry scandal tipped the scales against the Democratic governor.

“The whole do as I say, not as I do thing is annoying,” said Thomas, a state worker. “I didn’t think he did bad during Covid but taking 10% of state workers’ wages while not cutting his own pay hurt.”

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Over 200 miles to the north in the state’s capital, the casual resident could be forgiven for not even knowing there was such an impactful special election underway.

Lines were scant and traffic light around the polling centers in Sacramento and the campaign signs and fliers that usually adorn the politically savvy neighborhoods surrounding the state Capitol during most elections, were hard to find.

That doesn’t necessarily indicate a lack of enthusiasm but rather the convenience of universal mail balloting, said state worker Saleem Mir.

“My partner voted weeks ago but I still like to come in person,” he said.

Due to the pandemic, lawmakers and Newsom last year approved emergency regulations mandating ballots be mailed to all registered voters through 2021. There is however pending legislation to make the change permanent in the Golden State.

Mir was part of the steady stream of voters that went to polling centers Tuesday but instead of waiting to vote, simply dropped off their completed and sealed pink ballot envelopes. The Democrat said Newsom deserves to finish out his term but added he is interested to see whether the governor will face an inner-party challenge in 2022.

Health care worker Julissa Perez was critical of the recall process and called it a waste of time and money. She’s not registered with a party but said she was unmoved by the list of replacement candidates, specifically Elder and Olympian Caitlyn Jenner.

“Where are their qualifications? California has a lot going on right now,” she said.

A voter drops off their ballot at a pop-up tent outside the San Diego Registrar of Voters on Sept. 14, 2021. Californians are tasked with deciding whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Bianca Bruno/Courthouse News)

Ballot operations were also running smoothly in sunny San Diego, where drivers queued up to drop off their ballots at tents staffed in the parking lot. The voters at the Clairemont neighborhood who talked to Courthouse News on Tuesday morning skewed in favor of the recall.  

Even though drop-off and in-person voting was uneventful, some San Diego residents claimed the special election to recall Newsom is “rigged” hours before polls close and ballots are tallied.

Carol M. told Courthouse News she thought as much, noting her boyfriend had received two ballots in the mail.

“The results are already what they’re going to be, but I pray we can still have an honest election,” she said.

Francisco Cruz said he also voted to recall Newsom and replace him with Elder.

“I’m sick and tired of all the taxes, they’re affecting me terribly — both directly and indirectly,” he said.

San Diego has historically been one of California’s more conservative pockets, although the Democratic Party has made major gains in recent elections.

According to the latest update from the Secretary of State’s Office, Democrats make up 41% of San Diego County registered voters compared to 27% for the GOP. Statewide, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a nearly 2-1 margin.

San Diego voter Malcolm A. said he cast his vote in support of the incumbent.

“There’s people coming here to vote and they’re mad at Newsom and don’t really know why. I do think this is a Republican grab and they are going to shout ‘rigged.’”

As for his thoughts on Elder being poised to gain the most votes among the recall candidates, Malcolm — a 70-year-old Black man — said: “I think Larry Elder is a Black man Black people don’t like.”

To overcome the registration disparity, the best-case-scenario for the GOP candidates and recall proponents is for Democratic voters to stay at home on Election Day. Early returns however show that isn’t likely.

According to According to Political Data Inc., which provides voter information to campaigns and pollsters, 41% of the 22.2 million ballots mailed across the state have already been returned. Over 4.6 million registered Democrats have already returned their ballots, compared to 2.3 million Republicans and 2 million independents or non-party-preference voters.

In the 2003 recall in which voters removed Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, 61% of the electorate answered at least the first question. Voter turnout in the 2018 gubernatorial election was 64%.

Unlike past elections, campaign signs are few and far between in many of Sacramento’s neighborhoods. (Nick Cahill/Courthouse News)

Statewide polls close at 8p.m. and there is a chance a result is declared late Tuesday due to the large number of absentee ballots already collected.

The recall ballot lists just two questions: "Should Newsom be removed from office?” and “If yes, who should take his place?”  If a majority votes no, the recall is defeated.

If a simple majority answers yes to the recall, the candidate receiving the most votes on the second question will finish out Newsom’s term which ends on Jan. 2, 2023 — and the incumbent is not listed on the replacement question. Voters are not required to answer both questions and can decide to leave one blank. Assuming the early voters mostly align with their party-independents in recent elections have leaned more Democratic- the first batch of election results Tuesday night should put Newsom ahead. 

Follow Nick Cahill, Bianca Bruno and Dustin Manduffie on Twitter

Follow @@NickCahill_5 Follow @@BiancaDBruno Follow @dmanduff
Categories / Politics, Regional

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