Crowded Republican field fights to take on Ohio's veteran congresswoman

(CN) — Northwest Ohio’s recently redrawn 9th Congressional District could play a pivotal role in November’s midterm elections, as longtime Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur seeks to fend off Republican challengers.

Kaptur, the longest-serving female member of Congress in United States history, has represented Toledo, Sandusky and the surrounding areas since 1983.

The Democrats’ iron grip on the district could be at risk, however, after the Ohio Redistricting Committee changed its boundaries in October 2025.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, from The Center for Politics, most recently labeled the race as leaning Republican, while the Cook Political Report has Ohio’s 9th District as a toss-up.

Republican voters in the district will choose between five candidates in the May 5 primary, including state Representative Josh Williams, former state Representative Derek Merrin, Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Alea Nadeem, former ICE Deputy Director Madison Sheahan and Anthony Campbell, a health care worker.

Justin Buchler, associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University, doesn’t see the redrawn map as a death knell for Kaptur and the Democrats.

“Republicans have had their eyes on Kaptur’s district for a long time, but Kaptur has been there for a very long time even as the district has been redrawn a bunch of times. So it’s a little more Republican, but it was never really all that solidly Democratic in the first place,” he said.

Buchler emphasized the importance of incumbency in any congressional race, but especially for Ohio’s 9th, where Kaptur has served for over four decades.

The declining popularity of President Donald Trump as the war in Iran continues and consumer prices increase also won’t help Republicans in the midterms, according to Buchler.

“In principle, Republicans could win the 9th District, but the trouble for Republicans is looking at an election in 2026 with a Republican president who is unpopular by every measure, it is going to be hard for them to pick up seats. The normal pattern is that the president’s party loses seats in the midterms,” he said.

Merrin lost to Kaptur in the 2024 election in a tight race, and his experience in the Ohio statehouse could give him leg up in the primary.

“The normal characteristics of a challenger who can defeat an incumbent are things like experience,” Buchler said. “Every once in a while you can see a challenger who’s never held elected office defeat an incumbent, but that’s extraordinarily rare. So what the challenger wants to do is find a candidate who’s held elected office at the highest level possible because then they will have a candidate with name recognition and some degree of credibility with the electorate district.”

Williams would also tick the experience box for Republicans, and his work in the Ohio Legislature has garnered endorsements from numerous other state representatives, as well as Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

A self-described “poor kid” from Toledo who overcame a life-threatening railroad industry injury and has since graduated from Toledo Law School, Williams based his platform on rooting out career politicians from Washington.

“Marcy Kaptur has been in office for longer than I’ve been alive and northwest Ohio has suffered for decades as a result. I know what it’s like to overcome great odds and fight for everything in life,” he said in campaign materials.

Alea Nadeem joined the U.S. Air Force after the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and has highlighted her background from a “hardworking union family” throughout her campaign.

Now a lieutenant colonel and commander of a special forces squadron in the Air National Guard, Nadeem announced at the end of January she had raised more than $500,000 for her campaign.

“We won’t defeat Kaptur with recycled candidates, career politician weighed down by baggage, or consultant-driven campaigns designed to enrich insiders instead of winning elections,” Nadeem said. “The reason Kaptur doesn’t want to run against me is simple — I’ll make this race about her disastrous liberal record, and this time, she won’t be able to dodge accountability.”

Fundraising will be crucial for each of the Republican hopefuls, especially considering Kaptur has over $3.1 million in cash on hand, according to the latest data from the Federal Election Commission.

In his interview with Courthouse News, however, Buchler was quick to caution against making the race entirely about funding.

“Money is more of an indicator of attention rather than a determining factor,” he said.

“One of the misperceptions people have about the role of money is that whichever side spends the most money wins, and that is not at all the case. Incumbents will usually outspend challengers and incumbents will usually win, but that’s not a causal statement,” Buchler continued.

A late entry to the primary in January 2026, Sheahan has nonetheless nearly caught up with her fellow Republicans in fundraising, reporting over $450,000 in contributions by early March.

As the former deputy director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Sheahan has touted her connections to Trump and the agency’s proliferation during his second term.

She also served under Kristi Noem while she was governor of South Dakota, but it remains to be seen whether her connections to the fired secretary of Homeland Security and ICE will help or hurt with Ohio voters.

Public sentiment toward ICE shifted rapidly after several high-profile shootings of civilians and protesters by its officers, but Sheahan defended her tenure in a debate hosted Monday in Toledo by VoteRPAC.

“ICE needs to be able to go out and do their job and remove those illegal criminals,” she said. “We will continue to fight to secure the border.”

Nadeem agreed that immigrants in the United States without permission need to be removed, but countered the prevailing notion that conservatives dislike immigrants altogether.

“Republicans don’t hate immigrants, we actually love immigrants,” she said. “Before we look at any amnesty, we have to deport illegal immigrants. There’s a place and a time where we can actually look at amnesty, but not today or tomorrow.”

Anthony Campbell is the fifth option for Republicans in the primary, and while his background is in health care, he was not afraid to speak about international relations during Monday’s debate.

He broke with his fellow nominees and criticized the war in Iran, arguing the country would be better served if the money spent on the conflict was used to provide for Americans.

“When it comes to foreign conflicts, we have strayed far away from what the Founding Fathers intended. The Constitution is abundantly clear, it’s the sole duty of Congress to debate and declare war,” Campbell said.

Any of the potential Republican candidates will have an uphill battle in the November election, given Trump’s waning popularity and Kaptur’s long tenure.

The 79-year-old Toledo native began her political career as an adviser to President Jimmy Carter and is now chair of the House Appropriations Committee’s energy and water subcommittee.

“While Republicans from near and far are fighting through a messy primary in this district they gerrymandered again just last fall, Congresswoman Kaptur is focused on delivering real results for constituents across Northwest Ohio. There’s more work to do, and she’s not slowing down,” Kaptur’s campaign said in a statement.

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