Crowded Democratic field leaves no clear leader in New Jersey House race

TRENTON, N.J. (CN) — A small but potentially crucial special election in New Jersey to replace Governor Mikie Sherrill’s now-vacant seat is crowded with 11 Democrats, including a lieutenant governor, a former Obama administration staffer and a stand-up comedian.

“Democrats are coming out of the woodwork to run,” said Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, though he added they mostly have the same platform. “There is not much differentiation between the candidates.”

One main issue has unified the Democratic contenders in the Feb. 5 primary for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District: Trump.

Former Representative Tom Malinowski is one of the leading names among the contenders, having bombarded television and the Internet with ads claiming he was “the first swing-district Democrat to demand the impeachment of Donald Trump” after the Jan. 6, 2021, riots.

Malinowski, who served two terms in Congress for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, easily outpaces his competitors in fundraising with about $1.1 million raised and $404,000 cash on hand, according to filings with the Federal Election Committee.

Malinowski also likely has the best name recognition among the candidates, but he also faces nearly all the negative ads, including a push by a political action committee linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee over claims he failed to disclose stock trades while in Congress. Malinowski also was hit by shrapnel from attack ads citing his votes in favor of funding United States Immigration and Custom Enforcement while in Congress.

“The biggest donors to the group running this slimy ad are Trump-supporting billionaires,” Malinowski has said. “Since their last obviously dishonest smear failed, they’re now trying out the same discredited attack Republicans have repeatedly used both against me and in last year’s gubernatorial race.”

Former Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way also has tried to highlight her anti-Trump bona fides, noting she won in court against Trump and the GOP over voter registration records and mail-in ballots.

On the progressive side, Analilia Mejia, an activist with the backing of her former boss Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, has also taken aim at Malinowski for a 2019 ethics probe over the contested stock sales.

She also has the backing of New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — who called her a “fighter for working people who has been on the front lines” of immigration and health care battles — and key New Jersey Democrats like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and state Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg.

While Malinowski leads overall fundraising, Mejia leads the pack in terms of small donations; she has raised $165,000 in increments of $200 or less. However, she also has not spent much yet, which indicates a late-day push. “She’s been keeping her powder dry,” Cassino said, noting she offered supporters front-row tickets to see Bernie Sanders.

Second in terms of overall fundraising and cash on hand, Essex County Brendan Gill has the backing of former New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and labor unions, which could be a game-changer in such a small election since unions can still get out the vote in northern Jersey.

Gill also has the backing of the Essex County Democratic Committee. “That still matters,” said Matthew Hale, chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Affairs at Seton Hall University. “That’s still a pretty powerful organization.”

Gill, whose wife is Colombian, also has made immigration a major hallmark of his campaign, saying Trump’s crackdown on immigrants is “not abstract” for his family.

Among the other names in the crowded field are Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, who ran for the seat in 2018; businessman and veteran Zachary Beecher; attorney and comedian Jean-Louis Cauvin; former Obama administration staffer Cammie Croft; Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Grayzel; Chatham Councilman Justin Strickland; and activist Anna Lee Williams.

Two other Democrats — Maplewood Township Committeeman Dean Dafis and YouTuber Marc Chaaban — have already suspended their primary campaigns.

Fundraising may indicate who is leading the pack, but there is little polling to suggest who will win the primary.

According to PredictIt, a website that allows bettors to wager on political campaigns, Malinowski is the heads-on favorite to win the nomination by a large margin. Malinowski’s internal polling also reportedly has him edging out his competitors.

The Republican side is much simpler: Only one candidate, Joe Hathaway, is on the ballot.

Hathaway, who is mayor of Randolph Township in northeastern New Jersey, announced his candidacy in October 2025 before Sherrill even won the governor’s race. He had been critical of Sherrill’s failure to release all her academic and military records, latching onto one of the main GOP critiques at the time.

For more than three decades, the 11th Congressional District — comprised of slivers of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties — was considered “red.” In 2018, Sherill flipped NJ-11 blue when she beat Jay Webber 57% to 42%. Her reelection in 2020 was much tighter, though after redistricting in 2022 Sherrill’s margins of victory again widened.

While the 11th District is considered bluer these days, with such narrow margins in Congress, Democrats are not ignoring the possibility of it reverting to a swing seat.

“Democrats are scrambling to hold onto as many congressional seats as they can,” Hale said.

Turnout is key, experts say, and most candidates are relying on door-to-door voter outreach and town halls. Hale and Cassino agree if one-fifth of the New Jersey constituency votes, it would be good for the primary.

And while low turnout is expected, both parties will keenly watch the primary and the April 16 special election, as it may signal what to expect in November’s midterms.

“The fact that Democrats have been able to recruit so many qualified candidates and Republicans can’t speaks to the midterms,” Cassino said, noting most GOP contenders for the 11th who see a potential blue wave in the midterms are waiting until 2028 or 2030.

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