Copernicus: Record global heat spell ends in July, 2024 likely to be hottest year on record

(CN) — A record 13-month spell of global heat ended in July after the warmth-churning El Niño weather pattern dissipated in May, but this year remains on track to be the hottest ever measured, the European Union's climate monitor said Thursday.

Globally, last month was a teeny bit cooler on average than July 2023, which was the hottest month ever recorded, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its latest report.

Still, July made records with Copernicus saying the earth experienced its two hottest days ever measured last month. 

In much of the Northern Hemisphere, July was very hot. In southern Europe, the heat was made worse by severe drought in the Mediterranean region. Outside Europe, temperatures were above average over the western United States and western Canada, most of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and eastern Antarctica, the agency said.

After such a record-breaking spell of warmth, this year looks set to end as the warmest on record, Copernicus said. Between  January and July, the average global temperature has been 0.70 degrees Celsius (1.26 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average and the rest of the year would need to see a significant drop in temperature for 2024 to end up cooler than last year, the hottest year on record. Copernicus said it is “increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record.”

A moderately strong El Niño emerged during the spring of 2023 and fed this stretch of heat. El Niños bring warmer temperatures but also unruly weather, including intense storms and heavy rainfall. The confluence of the El Niño, human-caused global warming and other factors, such as a massive underwater volcanic eruption in Tonga in 2022, contributed to the record-breaking heat spell.    

Weather forecasters expect a short neutral phase before a La Niña weather pattern kicks in later this year, bringing cooler temperatures and rainier conditions. 

Copernicus said this July was barely cooler than July last year — or precisely 0.04 C (0.072 F) cooler. Between May 2023 and June 2024, the global temperature for each month was hotter than ever before recorded. 

Copernicus uses a fleet of climate-tracking satellites and millions of measurements around the planet to make its highly accurate calculations.    

On average, the global temperature in July was 16.91 C (62.43 F), making it 0.68 C (1.22 F) warmer than the average temperature for July, the agency said. 

Still, records were set in July. The agency said July 22 and July 23 came in as the two hottest days ever measured globally. On those two days, the global average temperature hit 17.16 C (62.88 F) and 17.15 C (62.87) respectively. With only a fraction of difference, the agency said it could not say which of the two days was the hottest with complete certainty.

The planet went through a similar record-breaking streak of warmth in 2015 and 2016 during a previous strong El Niño, the agency said. 

The record stretch of heat is considered a foretaste of how the future climate could feel — and the dangers that come with a warmer planet have been made painfully clear over the past year with extreme heat, wildfires and drought battering many regions of the world. 

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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