(CN) — Even though the water level on Lake Powell rose half a foot this year, the Bureau of Reclamation announced on Thursday that Lake Mead is projected to be in a “shortage condition” in 2025 — meaning Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico will see cuts in how much water they can use from the Colorado River.
“We are in a base period and we are seeing decreases in our reservoirs and we expect to see decreasing storage through the winter prior to spring runoff next year. However, our reservoirs are at normal levels and look fairly good,” said Heather Patno, a hydraulic engineer at the Bureau of Reclamation’s Glen Canyon Dam, during an online presentation of the bureau’s 24-month study on the conditions of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, two large reservoirs for the Colorado River.
Although precipitation has been normal this year and there were major storms in January through March this year, warm weather led to significant runoff, Patno said.
Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu are 95% full, but Lake Mead is only 33% full.
Arizona will have to decrease its water use by 512,000 acre-feet in 2025, and Nevada by 21,000 acre-feet. Mexico will have to cut its take from the Colorado River by 80,000 acre-feet.
“We knew that these shortage reductions were coming,” said Bronson Mack, the outreach manager for the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Next year’s water reduction is the exact same reduction the Silver State faced in the beginning of 2024 and 2022, Mack said.
Most of the water the state gets from the Colorado River goes to southern Nevada, specifically Las Vegas, Mack said, which has reduced its water usage by 42% since 2002 mostly through water conservation efforts like incentive programs to remove home lawns and install drip irrigation systems for trees and plants, banning commercial businesses from planting grass installations, and treating water used indoors and returning it back to Lake Mead.
“We are in the same shortage condition that we were last year, so we wouldn’t be cutting anything additionally,” said Shauna Evans, the public information officer for the Arizona Department of Water Resources.
In a press release, the department said Arizonans have conserved more than 3 million acre-feet in the river since 2014.
“Through the Lower Basin System Conservation and Efficiency Program, Arizonans have voluntarily committed to conserve nearly 1 million acre-feet through 2026, when the current 2007 Interim Guidelines and the Drought Contingency Plan expire. These conservation commitments, as well as the committed efforts of Arizona’s partners in the river system, have contributed significantly to keeping the system from descending below a Tier 1 condition,” the department said. “These conservation commitments, as well as the committed efforts of Arizona’s partners in the river system, have contributed significantly to keeping the system from descending below a Tier 1 condition.”
Tom Buschatzke, the department's director, noted President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act provided funding that allowed Arizonans to partner “across the Lower Basin to protect the resource we all rely on.”
A press release from the Bureau of Reclamation echoed that appreciation of Biden’s legislation.
“Through the president’s Investing in America agenda, Reclamation is leveraging nearly $13 billion in critical investments across the west through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act. These funds have helped the federal government secure a series of historic water conservation agreements across the Basin states, while investing in state-of-the-art upgrades to the West’s aging water infrastructure. Overall, investments will lead to at least 3 million acre-feet of system water conservation savings through the end of 2026, when the current guidelines expire,” the bureau said.
The Colorado River — the fifth-longest in the United States, as well as the water source for 40 million people and billions of dollars in agriculture — has faced drought conditions for more than two decades.
Much of the American Southwest depends on the river. Under a 1922 agreement, seven U.S. states, 30 Native American nations, and Mexico share it between residential water users, commercial users, agriculture and hydroelectric power. California receives the largest allocation.
The bureau acts as a federal mediator between the different users of the river’s water. Every month the bureau prepares a report for water managers in different states and tribal governments that projects how much water the river and reservoirs it feeds might contain 24 months into the future.
"While the Colorado River System continues to face low reservoir storage with Lake Powell and Lake Mead at a combined storage of 37% of capacity, investments in infrastructure improvements and system conservation have helped stabilize the Colorado River System in the near term and strengthen water security in the West," the bureau said.
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