Clinton Leads Nationally |in Latest Marist Poll

     (CN) – Hillary Clinton is heading into the weekend before the first presidential debate with a 7-point lead over Donald Trump, but lingering concerns about trustworthiness suggests the stakes in first televised one-on-one clash between the Democrat and her GOP rival could not be higher.
     “Hillary Clinton has established a lead, but Donald Trump’s supporters are more committed to him,” said Dr. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in announcing the results of the its latest poll Friday morning.
     “Digging deeper, African-Americans, Latinos, and women are rallying around Clinton’s candidacy. She also has the backing of young people, but the big question for her campaign is, ‘Will voters under 30 turn out?”
     Clinton and Trump overwhelmingly carry their respective party’s base, with 94 percent of Democrats saying they support Clinton and 87 percent of Republicans vowing to support Trump.
     As for Independents, they appear to be almost evenly split between the two major party candidates, 40 percent saying they prefer Clinton, while 38 percent support Trump.
     However, 18 percent of Independents say that will not support either of the candidates.
     The poll known as the McClatchy-Marist Poll found that 93 percent of blacks are supporting Clinton, compared to only 3 percent for Trump.
     Among Latino voters, Clinton outdistances Trump by more than four to one, 74 percent to 16 percent.
     Trump’s edge in the contest for the White House is white men, 53 percent of whom support him, and those likely voters who don’t have a college degree, 50 percent of whom said they will vote for him.
     Overall, when race isn’t considered, 50 percent of men are for Trump, while only 37 percent support Clinton.
     In terms of intensity of support, 65 percent of likely voters with a candidate preference said they strongly support their choice, while 27 percent said they “somewhat” support their candidate.
     Trump backers are slightly more likely to than Clinton’s supporters not to waiver in their commitment to their choice, 69 percent to 62 percent, the survey found.
     Seventy-nine percent of likely voters think it makes a big difference whether Clinton or Trump is elected president, and 34 percent said jobs and the economy is their leading issue, followed by terrorism, health care and education, each of which came in at 12 percent.
     Nine percent said foreign policy is their leading issue, while 9 percent pointed to immigration and 5 percent reported taxes.
     In related news, a spate of polls by Quinnipiac University show Trump narrowing the gap in Colorado and Virginia, and pulling ahead of Clinton in Georgia and Iowa.
     “Iowa, Virginia and Colorado are a metaphor for what is happening in the presidential race,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
     “When Quinnipiac University polled last in those states on August 17, Secretary Hillary Clinton was riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls,” Brown said. “Now, the race has tightened considerably nationally and that new reality is reflected by these numbers that show the two candidates much closer.”
     Leads for Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa and a virtual tie in Colorado plus a 6-point lead for Clinton in Virginia represent a major improvement overall for him in these states.
     “Another key to how the race has changed is the measure of each candidates’ ability to keep their respective bases in line. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been able to get more Democrat support than Trump’s Republican support. That has now changed a bit and in Georgia and Iowa, Trump does better on that score. Worth noting is that Trump has an edge among independent voters, often the key swing constituency, in all four of these states,” Brown said.
     In a four-way race in Colorado, there is a small gender gap among likely voters as men go 43 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. Women go 47 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. The Republican leads 46 percent to 40 percent among white voters, as the Democrat leads 62 percent to 24 percent among non-white voters.
     Trump takes Republicans 84 percent to 7 percent and independent voters 42 percent to 33 percent, with 16 percent for Johnson. Clinton takes Democrats 93 percent to 2 percent.
     “Once a red state, headed towards blue, you can’t get more purple than a tie and that’s where Colorado is as Election Day approaches,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
     As for Georgia, Clinton’s 4-percentage point edge among women likely voters can’t overcome Trump’s 21-point lead among men. Men go Republican 55 percent to 34 percent, as women go Democratic 45 percent to 41 percent.
     The racial gap is huge among Georgia likely voters: White voters back Trump 72 — 16 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 73 — 14 percent.
     Trump gets 43 percent of independent voters, with 40 percent for Clinton and 14 percent for Johnson. Republicans back Trump 90 percent to 3 percent, as Democrats back Clinton 86 percent to 4 percent.
     Trump also wins the gender battle among Iowa likely voters, with a 52 percent to 26 percent lead among men, to Clinton’s 47 percent to 37 percent lead among women.
     Johnson gets his biggest tally among Iowa independent voters, 19 percent, with 38 percent for Trump and 33 percent for Clinton. Republicans back Trump 86 — 4 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 83 percent to 5 percent.
     “Donald Trump is running better in Iowa than other Midwestern states and that shows in his lead in this poll. He has a slight lead among independent voters, but his margin there may be heavily tied to demographics. Iowa, with a voting bloc that is overwhelmingly white, lacks the kind of large minority population that has fueled Hillary Clinton’s lead in some of the large industrial states,” Brown said.
     Finally, in Virginia, woman and non-white likely voters push Clinton to her only lead in these four swing states.
     She leads 50 percent to 36 percent among women, while men back Trump 43 percent to 39 percent.
     Non-white voters go Democratic 70 percent to 15 percent, as white voters go Republican 51 percent to 32 percent. Clinton takes Democrats 90 percent to 2 percent. Trump leads 78 percent to 7 percent among Republicans and 44 percent to 34 percent among independent voters, with 12 percent for Johnson.
     “Virginia is a good example of how Hillary Clinton’s multi-racial coalition is operating. She is ahead 45 percent to 39 percent in Virginia overall. She only gets 32 percent of white voters, including 23 percent of white men, but her 70 percent of non-white voters puts her ahead,” Malloy said.

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