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Friday, March 29, 2024 | Back issues
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Biden & Warren in Statistical Dead Heat With Trump in Arizona

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the only top Democratic presidential candidate who would beat President Donald Trump in Arizona if the 2020 election were held today – and Biden’s lead has shrunk since May, a new poll of likely voters shows.

TUCSON, Ariz. (CN) – Former Vice President Joe Biden is the only top Democratic presidential candidate who would beat President Donald Trump in Arizona if the 2020 election were held today – and Biden’s lead has shrunk since May, a new poll of likely voters shows.

Biden would edge out Trump 45% to 43%, while Trump would beat Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 44% to 43%. Warren is the only other Democrat to poll within the margin of error. That’s a slight gain for Warren from a similar poll in May, but Biden’s lead dipped 3 points since then when he led Trump 49% to 44%, OH Predictive Insights chief researcher Mike Noble said in a statement.

“The biggest red flag is that Trump doesn’t cross the 50% threshold in any of these hypothetical matchups and is hovering in the low-to-mid forties,” Noble said. “The data continues to indicate that Arizona will likely be a battleground state in the upcoming 2020 presidential election.”

Trump would beat Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the Copper State, 44% to 34%. The president also would win today against South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg (43% to 38%) and California Senator Kamala Harris (45% to 36%), the poll shows.

The poll also linked the 2020 election to gun control, asking whether voters would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who backs “gun safety legislation.”

Not surprisingly, 79% of Arizona Democrats said they are more likely to vote for candidates who support those laws, while just 32% of Republicans did. Overall, 56% of Arizona voters said they would be more likely to back such candidates, with 19% less likely.

Arizonans are generally more likely to vote for candidates who back a “public option for Medicare.” Among Democrats, 67% told OH Predictive they would back those candidates, while 24% of Republicans did, and 13% declined to answer.

Climate change showed a stark split along party lines.

While 74% of Democrats said they would be more likely to vote for candidates who back “a climate change plan like the Green New Deal,” just 15% of Republicans did. Overall, 42% said they would be more likely to vote for candidates backing sweeping climate change legislation.

The number of Arizona voters who approve of Trump’s job performance dipped from 49% to 47% since May, while his disapproval rating rose from 50% to 52%, according to OH. Those numbers reflect more support for the president than a national poll published yesterday by SSRS, a research firm that partners with CNN.

That poll showed 40% of Americans think the president is doing a good job, while 54% told SSRS he isn’t.

“To win Arizona, Trump is going to have to do a better job of convincing voters he is the right man to lead on the economy and world affairs,” Noble said.

Categories / Politics

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