WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden will try to reaffirm and recalibrate U.S. relationships in the Middle East during his first trip to the region since taking office, but it won’t be easy in a corner of the world that’s asking fresh questions about the future of American influence.
Biden departs late Tuesday bound for Israel, where chaotic politics have left a caretaker government in charge until elections later this year, limiting the opportunity for durable dealmaking. It’s unlikely that Biden will have much better luck in the West Bank when he visits with Palestinian leaders who have become increasingly unpopular among their own people.
The trip only becomes more fraught from there. Biden’s next stop will be Saudi Arabia, an autocracy with a legacy of human rights abuses but also vast reserves of oil that the president wants to see pumped more quickly to alleviate high gas prices caused, in part, by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Looming over Biden’s travels will be his administration’s struggle to rejuvenate the Iran nuclear deal that was reached by Barack Obama in 2015 and abandoned by Donald Trump in 2018. Negotiations stalled last month, and Iran is believed to be closer than ever to having the ability to build a nuclear weapon. Failure to reach a diplomatic solution could increase the chance of conflict in an already combustible neighborhood.
“He’s going to face a region that’s long on problems with very few solutions,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In addition, Biden has been more focused on Europe, which is experiencing its worst armed conflict since World War II, and Asia, where he's been trying to reorientate U.S. foreign policy to confront China's rising power.
Jake Sullivan, the president's national security adviser, said the U.S. needs to remain “intensively engaged” in the Middle East because the region is “deeply interwoven with the rest of the world.”
"If we act now to create a peaceful and stable region, it will pay dividends for the American national interests and for the American people for years to come," he said Monday at a White House briefing.
In addition to meetings with Israeli and Palestinian politicians, Biden is expected to visit an Israeli missile defense installation and the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial. He's also slated to receive Israel's Presidential Medal of Honor and visit with U.S. athletes taking part in the Maccabiah Games, which involves thousands of Jewish and Israeli athletes from around the globe.
He travels to Saudi Arabia at the end of the week, when he'll attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which brings together Arab leaders from the region. Sullivan said the president will make a “major statement” on his vision for the Middle East region.
But the most closely watched encounter will be his first meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's crown prince and presumed heir to the throne currently held by King Salman.
Biden has been sharply critical of Saudi Arabia, even saying during the presidential campaign that it should be treated like a “pariah” for human rights abuses. His administration released a declassified intelligence report saying the crown prince, known as MBS, likely approved the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S.-based writer who was critical of the regime.
However, the shifting politics of energy have led Biden to change course, especially as American drivers face high costs at the gas pump. The global price spike could also make it more difficult for Biden to convince allies to keep pressuring Russia with sanctions as the war in Ukraine grinds on.