Biden Leads by Double Digits With Arizona Democrats

(CN) – Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead over his 2020 Democratic rivals in Arizona, though it is mainly concentrated within Arizona’s most populated counties, according to polling data released Tuesday.

The OH Predictive Insights poll shows Biden, which most surveys put as the front-runner in the Democratic primary contest for president, continues to lead in Arizona with 29% support among primary voters. This gives Biden a sizeable 11-point advantage over his closest rival, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who currently sits at 18%. Rounding out the top three for Arizona Democrats is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16%.

No other candidate within the Democratic field cracked 10% support.

Mike Noble, chief of research and a managing partner of Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, said the numbers the Democratic race for president is narrowing to three leading candidates.

“Despite the historically large Democratic primary field, it’s actually a three-way race in Arizona with Joe Biden showing strongest support among many demographic groups,” Noble said with the release of the poll.

Biden’s current lead in the Grand Canyon State is also notably larger than in previous polls. An Emerson Polling questionnaire conducted in late October had Biden at 28% support among Arizona voters, while Warren and Sanders were tied at 21% each. This suggests the 7-point advantage Biden enjoyed at the time has now widened even further as Biden’s numbers inch upward and Warren and Sanders slip.

A breakdown of Biden’s support by county finds that while Biden holds an advantage across Arizona overall, most of his support comes from the state’s two largest counties.

In Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populated, Biden lead with a sizeable 32% – well ahead of Warren and Sanders at 17% and 13%, respectively.

In Arizona’s second-most populated county Pima, Biden ties with Sanders at 27% support.  Warren holds on to second in Pima County with 13%.

Among the rest of Arizona’s counties, Biden manages third place. Warren, continuing a trend of typically polling better in smaller urban communities, leads in the state’s 15 smaller counties with 24%, ahead of Sanders (20%) and Biden (19%).

Within all of Arizona’s counties, however, at least 20% of voters continue to support an “other” candidate.

Biden and Sanders command sizeable support from Hispanic voters in the state, each holding roughly a third (31%) of Hispanic voter support. Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, the only Latino still in the race for president, takes a distant third with only 8% Hispanic support in the state. Warren rounds out the top four with at just 5%.

A breakdown in educational background among Arizona voters also show that each candidate is drawing support from entirely separate voting groups.

Biden enjoys 31% support among voters without a college degree, leading the field by double-digits compared to Sanders (18%) and Warren (10%).

Biden also leads with voters who have a college degree, though the lead has shrunk to single digits. Biden enjoys 27% from college-educated voters, followed by Sanders at 23% and Warren at 21%.

Warren only just overtakes Biden among voters with a post-graduate degree, 29% to 26%. Sanders enjoys support from just 7% of that group.

The poll surveyed 900 registered voters, including 260 likely primary voters, and has a margin of error of 6.08 points.

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