(CN) – In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg statistically tie President Donald Trump in Arizona – a state Trump carried in 2016 – according to a poll released Monday.
A new OH Predictive Insights poll shows that in Arizona matchups, Biden earns 44% to Trump’s 46%. For his part, Buttigieg earns 43% to Trump’s 45% in the state, traditionally a Republican stronghold in presidential elections.
While Trump leads both hypothetical contests by two points, both victories are within the poll’s nearly 4% margin of error – meaning that Biden and Buttigieg are virtually tied with the president.
For Biden this is a far less decisive achievement than he has experienced previously. A poll conducted in May showed that Biden would beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup by five points, 49%-44%, suggesting that Biden’s support in the Grand Canyon State has eroded while Trump’s support has remained largely consistent.
Biden is not without favorable prospects and statistics in Arizona, however. A OH Predictive Insights poll in November showed the former vice president continues to lead his Democratic rivals by double digits with significant support from Arizona’s two most populated counties, Maricopa and Pima.
While support for Biden has dropped in the direct matchup since May, Buttigieg has seen his numbers improve. In the May poll, Buttigieg garnered 37% support from Arizona voters when placed directly against Trump, so Monday’s numbers represent a six-point jump.
Neither Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren managed to beat or tie the president in Arizona, according to Monday’s poll. Sanders only managed 34% to Trump’s 47%, a three-point drop since May’s poll.
Warren fairs slightly better with 41% to Trump’s 47%, down one point compared to May’s figures.
The poll also looked at how the race’s newcomer, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, stacks up to Trump in Arizona. This state could be a critical primary state for Bloomberg given his strategy of focusing on states with later primaries. Arizona will not hold its Democratic primary contest until March 17, 2020.
In the poll, Bloomberg earned 40% support in the Grand Canyon State to Trump’s 47%.
OH Predictive Insights data analyst Jacob Joss says the fact that Trump seems to consistently poll at around 47% against each Democratic candidate is sure to play a meaningful role come next year’s election.
“No Democrat has earned more than 47% in a presidential election here since LBJ in 1964, but given this president’s apparent ceiling, that might just be enough to win when November rolls around,” Joss said with the release of the poll.
A Democrat has not carried Arizona in a general election in nearly a quarter of a century, since Bill Clinton pulled it off in 1996 against Republican Bob Dole and independent businessman Ross Perot.
Republicans have carried the state in presidential elections since, however. Trump continued this trend when he defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly four points.
Monday’s OH Predictive Insights poll surveyed 628 individuals.