DETROIT (CN) — Michigan elected Donald Trump to the presidency by the narrowest of margins in 2016. Now, polling shows it to be tilted towards Joe Biden, which — if it holds — would mark the seventh time in eight presidential election cycles that the Wolverine State voted for the Democratic candidate.
President Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes over Hillary Clinton, the closest race in state history. He has struggled to repeat that magic as Election Day nears and while it is not impossible for the incumbent to make up ground, it will be tough, according to Charles Shipan, professor of social and political science at the University of Michigan.
“Although Biden's lead over Trump is similar to Clinton's lead at this same point, Biden's lead has been far steadier, whereas Clinton's lead jumped around much more dramatically, sometimes fairly big and other times pretty narrow,” he told Courthouse News. “Biden's lead has been consistently large. Second, pollsters learn from their mistakes. In 2016, they underrepresented Trump voters — at least in some state polls.
“My sense from hearing from people involved in polling is that they're taking this into account this time, and attempting to avoid that same mistake. Another potential issue is that there are fewer prominent 3rd party candidates this time around.” he said via email.
William Gordon, chair of the Republican Party for Washtenaw County dismissed the polling in a phone interview and opined there are a block of loyal Trump voters who will remain in the shadows.
“I don’t think they are very accurate. We’ve never trusted polling very much,” he said.
Gordon said he believes there are many shy Trump voters who will not telegraph their voting intentions for fear of retribution.
“In Washtenaw County, it’s actually quite frightening. I have people who come to me and let me know they can’t speak openly about politics for fear of getting fired. The enthusiasm for Trump and [state Senate candidate John] James are very high. I judge it by sign requests, I get a tremendous amount of requests for signs,” he said.
During a recent rally in Muskegon, Trump declared the upcoming vote was “the most important election in the history of our country,” as he begged his supporters to “just make sure you vote.”
At the same rally, Trump directed some ire towards Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, over the Covid-19 restrictions she issued.
“You got to get your governor to open up your state, OK,” he said. “And get your schools open. The schools have to be open,” he continued as the adoring crowd chanted “lock her up.”
“Lock ’em all up,” he said with a smile.
“This is exactly the rhetoric that has put me, my family, and other government officials' lives in danger while we try to save the lives of our fellow Americans. It needs to stop,” Whitmer responded on Twitter.
Corwin Smidt, associate professor in the department of political science at Michigan State University, warns that even though polling favors Biden, nothing should be taken for granted.
“Michigan is a tough state for pollsters and tends to have larger errors than other states. It is partly because of how we keep our public data on voter turnout. We also have a lot of counties that have swung back and forth lately. That makes our voters less predictable too,” he said in an email.
If the election is close in Michigan, it could spark a fight between the parties according to Shipan.
“One possibility is that Biden wins big, in line with what polls are currently showing, and if that happens we'll have a strong sense of it on election day. The other possibility — the more likely one, in my view — is that either Biden has a narrow lead with the votes that are cast on election day, or that Trump does,” he said.