As left-wing coalition shocks with a win over the far right, France is left to wonder what’s next

PARIS (CN) — On Sunday night, during the final round of France’s snap elections, Paris braced itself for chaos that never came. Though the far-right National Rally looked primed to win, the left-wing New Popular Front’s ultimate victory took the country by surprise.

“I was waiting directly at 8 o'clock to see what was going to happen,” Hall Gardner, a professor of politics at The American University of Paris, told Courthouse News. “I have to admit, I was pretty surprised; I didn't think the left would get its act together.”

Storefronts along the Champs Elysées, Bastille and République were boarded up in anticipation of spontaneous protests, which were expected to break out if the RN took the lead. Police blocked off car traffic on big avenues. When the results came in, residents of the 11th arrondissement of Paris seemed to be in a collective state of shock. The Rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine, which is usually roaring with traffic, was dead quiet at sunset.    

The results show the left coalition, known as NFP, leading with 182 seats, Macron’s Ensemble coalition in second place with 168 and the RN trailing in third with 143. The results are a serious deviation from the first round of votes and from projections, which showed the right's RN with a comfortable lead.

“The fear of the National Rally really drove people to vote,” Gardner said, contemplating why these numbers looked so different from the first round on June 30. “And I think a lot of young people went out to vote against the RN.”

Sam Ben Brahim works in a flower shop near the Montparnasse tower in the city's 14th arrondissement.

“Victory!” he exclaimed, throwing his arms into the air. “I wish the left won even more, but I’m super happy with everything, they made a really good dent.”

Ben Brahim was at his house when the first results came through on Sunday night. He was shocked.

“I’m thrilled that we won’t have a far-right government, even if I have residency papers — I have foreign origins like most French people,” he said. “It’s good that France stays non-racist.”

The RN has worked hard to shed its xenophobic image, which still holds a large place in the French imagination. When Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the party in 1972, he became notorious for extreme antisemitism and racist rhetoric. When Marine Le Pen, his daughter, took over in 2011, her mission was to normalize the party; but it’s really Jordan Bardella, its current president, who is widely credited with making the RN more mainstream in recent years.

Although the RN did much worse than projected on Sunday, Bardella refused to admit defeat. This is the closest the RN has ever come to power. During an electoral party in the Bois de Vincennes, a big park in eastern Paris, Bardella said, “The National Rally today achieved the most important breakthrough in its entire history,” and thanked voters for an unprecedented “patriotic surge.”

Although Paris voted almost exclusively for Macron’s centrist coalition and the NFP, some remained unhappy with the results. On Monday morning, Nabil Tony, a 63-year-old man born in Egypt, was smoking a cigarette at a bus stop on the Avenue du Maine. Though he initially told Courthouse News that he was happy with the election results, he eventually conceded that he voted for the RN. The party still remains somewhat taboo in France.

Tony was driven to vote for the far right because he thinks the country has a problem with immigrants.

“They bring all of their problems in suitcases with them,” he said. “It’s the big problem, of course.”

Tony brought up Barbès, a North African neighborhood in the 18th arrondissement of the city, not far from the Moulin Rouge.

“I wanted the RN to limit immigration — have you ever been to Barbès at night?” he asked. “You’ll see.”

Nearby, Ange Rafioo, an Iranian woman living in Paris, was waiting for her daughter outside a café. She was also disappointed by the results and wanted the RN to take the helm.

“I’m shocked that the left won,” she told Courthouse News. “I hoped it would return to the right; they’re better than the left.”

Rafioo cited concern over radical Islam as a driving force behind voting for the RN.

The question is what will happen next. Deciding on a prime minister seems to be the first order of business. Gabriel Attal, the current prime minister, handed in his resignation on Monday morning, but Macron asked him to remain “for the time being, to ensure the country’s stability,” according to the Élysée palace.

Though the left won a relative majority, it’s unclear who they would put forward as a candidate. Though Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed is the loudest voice in the room, he’s a controversial figure who many consider extreme. His refusal to call Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel an act of terrorism caused deep rifts within the left that have yet to be repaired.

"We will propose a government this week ," Yannick Jadot, a member of the New Popular Front, said on Monday.

Then, there’s the issue of the absolute majority. Since no coalition won enough seats to secure governing power, parties will likely form new alliances to boost their numbers.

“The left will still need to make alliances with the Ensemble of the centrists and some of the Republicans,” Gardner said. “So if they can't do that, then we're going to see a very divided and chaotic French government for the next year at least.

“So it's very important, in my view, that the left reach out to the centrists and the even the right wing in order to maintain France’s stability,” Gardner added.

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