As Election Day looms in conservative stronghold of Mississippi, a Democrat may have shot at governor’s office

(CN) — How likely is it that a Southern state governed by a supermajority of Republicans in the Legislature, a state where Donald Trump won 57% of the vote in 2020, would elect a Democratic governor just three years later? There’s a chance, some polls and pundits suggest, that Mississippi voters could do just that on Election Day Nov. 7.

Even though he is touting record low unemployment, improvements in student testing and a record high budget surplus, there’s just the right amount of scandal, disapproval and division surrounding incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves that some experts believe he can be defeated.

Democrats hope they have supported the right candidate in challenger Brandon Presley, a former mayor of the small town of Nettleton in the northeast corner of the state who since 2008 has served as a member of the Public Service Commission.

Presley announced his campaign in January and within weeks received endorsements from influential members of the state and national Democratic party. As he built momentum by the summer, campaign contributions began flooding in. A campaign finance report submitted Oct. 10 indicates Presley had raised nearly $7.9 million, with a balance of about $1.8 million in the final weeks of the campaign.

Reeves raised about $5.1 million over the same period, but he began with more cash on hand and filled a war chest with about $4.2 million entering October. In recent weeks, airwaves, billboards and other media in the state have been blanketed with ads for both candidates, as some polls indicated Presley is within the margin of error.

Presley, who is also a second cousin of Elvis, has painted Reeves as an elitist who doesn’t care about poor or struggling residents. He also highlights the governor’s ties to a $94 million welfare scandal which saw money steered toward lobbyists and political supporters, including former NFL quarterback Brett Favre and a nonprofit run by Reeves’ former personal trainer.

“Absent some sort of scandal or other big controversial issue that comes up, we expect that in a statewide race in Mississippi, the Republican will win, about 60% to 40%,” said Glenn Antizzo, a professor of history and political science at Mississippi College. “But this one is going to be a lot closer.”

Antizzo said that while Reeves showed strength in dealing with Covid-19 in the state and politically “he’s able to solve problems,” the governor’s primary weakness is that “he’s not a people person .. . If you see him out in public, he doesn’t appear comfortable or smooth.”

Presley, on the other hand, has built a solid reputation in the conservative stronghold of northeast Mississippi while constantly attacking the ruling party for its opposition to Medicaid expansion, even as a poll showed two-thirds of Mississippians support it.

Antizzo said of Reeves: “Policy-wise, his greatest vulnerability is failing to help rural hospitals from closing when he could expand Medicaid.”

Presley has also seized on traditionally Republican principles, Antizzo noted. In addition to being pro-life and pro-gun, for example, Presley has promised to cut or eliminate the state’s grocery tax. To the contrary, Antizzo said, Reeves’ campaign has been marked by “talking points and cliches.”

Ray Mikell (pronounced Michael), a professor of political science at Jackson State University, had a similar observation about Reeves’ ads.

“It seems like everything is about trans kids,” Mikell said. “It’s like some consultant told him it was a big issue, so you have to throw it in there.”

Mikell said Presley’s message of political change may not be any more effective, as it may unintentionally blame voters for making their own mistakes on the ballot in the past. But aside from the welfare scandal and Medicaid issue, Reeves and the Republican party have been notoriously hostile to constituents and local elected officials in the Black majority capital city of Jackson, which was crippled by a drinking water crisis in 2022.

Further, division within the party reared its head during the primary campaign for lieutenant governor earlier this year, where Reeves failed to support a challenge from fellow Republican Chris McDaniel, who positioned himself as farther right than Republican incumbent Delbert Hosemann. When McDaniel was defeated, he lashed out at leaders of his own party for “sliding to the left” in recent years.

Both Antizzo and Mikell predicted Presley would have a difficult time advancing his political agenda if he was elected, although Mikell thinks Presley may be successful in at least getting a Medicaid expansion bill on the floor, where a debate could expose vulnerabilities in the opposition and open room for a compromise. Otherwise, there would likely be a four-year struggle for spending on education and infrastructure, not to mention potential tax cuts.

“I would generally give the basic advantage to Tate Reeves and I’m always skeptical that a Democrat could win, but this is a strange year and I’m not going to make predictions,” Mikell said.

Polling in the campaign has varied from a 17-point advantage for Reeves in July to a statistical tie by August, with no real consensus in subsequent polls. Mikell believes the polls are unreliable and the real test will be whether Black voters or conservative voters are more likely to cast a ballot on Election Day.

At the annual Neshoba County Fair in July, which is considered a can’t-miss campaign stump for statewide political candidates, Reeves recited his campaign slogan of “Mississippi has momentum,” while claiming Presley’s campaign was “filled with falsehoods” and his fundraising was “fueled by national liberals.”

Presley, who spoke on the same stage just a few minutes earlier, recalled growing up poor in a single-parent household where there was not always money for essentials, including food and utilities. He said Reeves is ignorant to the financial struggles of most Mississippians.

“I understand what it is to be a survivor, I understand what it means to just scrape by, I understand where working people are … . Families like mine don’t exist in Tate Reeves’ mind,” he said.

One last opportunity to drive turnout may exist in the candidates’ first and only debate, scheduled for Nov. 1.

“We got us a race,” Mikell concluded. “The takeaway for me is I would think Reeves would have the advantage because it’s still a majority-white voting state, even though we have the highest percentage of Black people of any state in the union. So it will come down to Black turnout and whether a large percentage of conservative voters turn out for Reeves. If they do, he’ll win. If they don’t, it’ll be kind of interesting.”

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