High-stakes British election could trigger challenge to Starmer

MANCHESTER, England (CN) — U.K. voters began casting ballots Thursday in a parliamentary by-election that could determine the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government and trigger a leadership battle.

The vote in Makerfield, an area on the outskirts of Wigan in Greater Manchester, carries unusual weight for a local race. About 70,000 eligible voters could end up influencing who governs 69 million people.

Polls close at 10 p.m. local time Thursday, with results expected in the early hours of Friday.

If Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wins for Labour, he has promised to “enter any Labour leadership contest” to replace Starmer as leader and thus prime minister.

Such a scenario could leave Britain with its seventh prime minister since 2017.

Burnham may also persuade Starmer to stand down, but the prime minister has explicitly stated, “If there is a challenge, I intend to fight,” after firmly rejecting mounting pressure for him to step down.

Local election with national consequences

Labour lawmaker Josh Simons stepped down on May 14 to allow Burnham to contest the Makerfield seat, after Labour had blocked him from standing in another by-election that the Green Party ultimately won.

It has become a referendum on Starmer’s leadership less than two years after Labour returned to power in a landslide election victory.

During his campaign, Burnham described the election as “a clarion call for change, change for people in this part of the world, a place I love so much.”

He called for a “change to the economy, change to education, change to housing, change to transport, change to care and yes, to make it all possible, a change to politics.”

Burnham has forged a positive reputation as mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, overseeing strong economic growth for the region that bucks the national trend of stagnation.

It has helped him become Britain’s most popular politician, with some national media crowning him the King of the North.

He has staked his political future on defeating right-wing Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber whose campaign has been overshadowed by past sexist social media posts and poor media performances during TV debates.

Despite Makerfield historically being one of Labour’s safest seats and having elected Labour lawmakers since its creation in 1983, Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform party has mounted a serious challenge.

Heading into election day, Burnham has consistently led in the polls but only by a few percentage points.

Starmer has sought to defuse speculation about Burnham’s ambitions by offering him a “big” job in government should he win — an offer Burnham has rejected.

Under Labour Party rules, a challenger to a sitting leader must secure nominations from at least 20% of Labour lawmakers as well as support from local party organizations and affiliated groups, including trade unions.

Any qualifying candidates would then face a vote among Labour members nationwide. Starmer would automatically qualify if he chooses to defend his position.

Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary last month, is also expected to enter any race to succeed Starmer.

A Burnham victory would trigger another high-stakes contest: a mayoral election for Greater Manchester, one of England’s most powerful regional offices.

A split to the right-wing vote?

Restore Britain, a hard-right insurgent party founded by former Reform lawmaker Rupert Lowe, has threatened to siphon votes away from Farage’s movement.

Lowe, who launched the party in February after a split with Reform, has positioned it further to the right with a hardline anti-immigration platform.

The party gained international attention after a public endorsement from Elon Musk.

Farage responded by accusing the trillionaire Tesla and SpaceX chief of helping “split the right” after Musk backed Restore Britain in several posts on X.

Lower down the ballot, the Conservative Party is also contesting the seat, alongside the centrist Liberal Democrats and the left-wing Green Party.

Whatever the outcome, Thursday’s vote has transformed a normally overlooked local election into a national reckoning for Britain’s governing party.

For Starmer, a Burnham victory could unleash a leadership challenge from one of Labour’s most formidable figures.

For Burnham, defeat would end any realistic path to Downing Street.

For the rest of the country, the result will offer the clearest test yet of whether Labour can contain the rise of populist right-wing parties that continue to redraw the country’s political map.

Courthouse News reporter James Francis Whitehead is based in England.

Follow @jayfranklinlive