WASHINGTON (AP) — The great inflation spike of the past three years is nearly spent — and economists credit American consumers for helping slay it.
Some of America's largest companies, from Amazon to Disney to Yum Brands, say their customers are increasingly seeking cheaper alternative products and services, searching for bargains or just avoiding items they deem too expensive. Consumers aren't cutting back enough to cause an economic downturn. Rather, economists say, they appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms, when most companies felt they couldn't raise prices very much without losing business.
“While inflation is down, prices are still high, and I think consumers have gotten to the point where they’re just not accepting it,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said last week at a conference of business economists. "And that’s what you want: The solution to high prices is high prices.”
A more price-sensitive consumer helps explain why inflation has appeared to be steadily falling toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, ending a period of painfully high prices that strained many people's budgets and darkened their outlooks on the economy. It also assumed a central place in the presidential election, with inflation leading many Americans to turn sour on the Biden-Harris administration's handling of the economy.
The reluctance of consumers to keep paying more has forced companies to slow their price increases — or even to cut them. The result is a cooling of inflation pressures.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that Americans' expectations of how much they'll spend in the next 12 months has declined — and so has their outlook for inflation. Consumers expect their spending to grow 4.9% in the coming year, according to a survey by the New York Fed. That is the lowest such reading since April 2021, when inflation was beginning to surge.
And they expect inflation to average just 2.3% over the next three years, the survey found, the lowest such figure since the survey began in 2013. Consumer expectations for inflation can be self-fulfilling: When households expect low inflation, they tend to delay some purchases in the expectation that prices won't rise much in the near future — and might even decline in some cases. This trend can keep price pressures down.
Other factors have also helped tame inflation, including the healing of supply chains, which has boosted the availability of cars, trucks, meats and furniture, among other items, and the high interest rates engineered by the Fed, which slowed sales of homes, cars and appliances and other interest rate-sensitive purchases.
Still, a key question now is whether shoppers will pull back so much as to put the economy at risk. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of economic activity. With evidence emerging that the job market is cooling, a drop in spending could potentially derail the economy. Such fears caused stock prices to plummet a week ago, though markets have since rebounded.
This week, the government will provide updates on both inflation and the health of the American consumer. On Wednesday, it will release the consumer price index for July. It's expected to show that prices — excluding volatile food and energy costs — rose just 3.2% from a year earlier. That would be down from 3.3% in June and would be the lowest such year-over-year inflation figure since April 2021.
And on Thursday, the government will report last month's retail sales, which are expected to have climbed a decent 0.3% from June. Such a gain would suggest that while Americans have become vigilant about their money, they are still willing to spend.
Many businesses have noticed.
