After Democratic scare, California flirts with return to closed primaries

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — Just months ago, California Democrats were wringing their hands over the possibility two Republicans might face off in November for the governor’s mansion.

Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton regularly polled in the top two spots. In a state with a jungle primary, that meant Democrats — who hold every statewide office and a supermajority in the Legislature — could have been shut out of the gubernatorial election.

The chance has long passed. The polls evolved. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Hilton took the top two spots on June 2.

But political experts say the top-two, or jungle, primary could soon be shown the door.

“Undo the Top Two” is a California ballot measure awaiting the state attorney general for its title and summary. It’s expected to reach the signature-gathering stage soon. Voters could get their say in November 2028 and, if passed, the measure would become effective in 2030.

“I’d say it’s pretty high chances of getting rid of it,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data. “I think voters have pretty much soured on this thing.”

Mitchell sees it as voters growing tired of candidates using the jungle primary to game the system. He pointed to the 2024 race for a California U.S. Senate seat as an example.

Several candidates vied to replace U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, who had died while in office. Among them were Democratic U.S. representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, along with Republican Steve Garvey.

During the primary, Schiff’s campaign ran ads targeting Garvey, framing the race as him versus the Republican. Mitchell called it a way to use the primary system to ensure the November race pitted a Democrat, Schiff, against Garvey.

Schiff won the seat.

Couple that experience with weeks of anguish this election season over the chance two Republicans could shut out Democrats in the governor’s race, and Mitchell sees a healthy appetite for returning to a traditional, party-based primary system.

People focus on the jungle primary system instead of the policies and issues of candidates running for office, Mitchell said. Some Democrats pointedly said on social media they intended to wait until polls solidified before casting their ballot — waiting until a Democratic frontrunner emerged and voting for them to stave off a top-two Republican gubernatorial race.

“The election system shouldn’t be the main character of the election,” Mitchell said.

That was then

Fifteen years ago, Californians liked the idea of a jungle primary.

The title and summary of Proposition 14, passed by voters in June 2010, said: “Increases right to participate in primary elections.”

It passed with over 2.8 million votes, or 53.8%.

Eric Schickler, a political science professor and codirector of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, said the intent behind that proposition was to decrease political polarization.

“I think the evidence behind that is quite mixed,” he said of the results.

Schickler sees Democratic fear over getting locked out of a general election as a large motivator to remove the jungle primary. He pointed to this cycle’s 6th Congressional District race, which initially had former Republican and current independent U.S. Representative Kevin Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield taking the top two spots in the days after the June 2 election. Former Democratic state Senator Richard Pan has since taken the second spot.

However, the chance of something similar happening in the governor’s race creates much more pressure to discard the jungle primary system, Schickler said.

Kim Nalder, a political science professor with Sacramento State, agrees with Schickler on the intent of the 2010 change. The jungle primary was meant to lead more moderate politicians to win office. However, Democrats’ fears of getting locked out of a general election ballot will push them to the polls.

“If I were to put my money down, I would say, yes, the open primary is over,” she added.

The goal of sweeping moderate elected officials into office never materialized. Instead, some Democrats become more business friendly while Republicans made no policy shifts. This changed the Legislature some, but not to the ideological degree the open primary supporters had thought, Nalder said.

Steven Maviglio, the formal proponent of Undo the Top Two, told Courthouse News the jungle primary is a failed experiment and undemocratic.

“It often leaves voters with two candidates of the same party, denying them the opportunity to cast a ballot for a candidate that reflects their values or is a member of their political party,” Maviglio said in a statement. “We had a near miss of that in the governor’s race, but it is in the reality in the statewide race for insurance commissioner, congressional races and legislative contests.”

Return of the closed primary

One argument for a return to the party primary is inclusivity, Nalder said.

If a candidate from every party reaches the general election, there’s a greater range of views for voters to select from. The current top-two system gives voters a binary choice, she added.

And while minor party candidates might have little chance of attaining office, they do have a chance of getting successful candidates to incorporate their views.

James Adams, a political science professor at UC Davis, said he sees a problem with candidates, not necessarily the system used to elect them.

For Adams, former U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell’s sudden departure from politics left lackluster Democratic candidates in the governor’s race. Add to that the current climate that has Democrats winning every statewide elected seat, regardless of how they govern, and California is left with a one-party system — with or without an open primary.

“I guess it’s easier to blame the primary system than look in the mirror,” Adams said, noting he’s a lifelong Democrat.

Adams is unsure whether a change back to a closed primary would give Democrats a long-term advantage. However, at the least it ensures they’ll get a candidate to every general election.

Despite his own political allegiance, Adams said he’d like to see Republicans become more competitive in the state. A legitimate electoral threat from the GOP would push Democrats toward real change, he thinks.

California has difficult problems like housing and homelessness, and Democrats have had control of all statewide offices for 15 years. Their ability to govern has no impact on their statewide sweep, Adams said.

Yet those problems remain.

“It strikes me as odd to blame it on the primary system,” he added.