(CN) - It's being called the most important election in modern European history. When voters head to the polls for the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday they won't only be deciding who will qualify to compete in the election's second round, on May 7, but also whether the populist wave that propelled the Brexit and swept Donald Trump into the White House will maintain its momentum.
The latest poll conducted by BFM-TV and L'Express magazine showed centerist Emmanuel Macron likely to win Sunday's contest with 24 percent of the vote, with the far right candidate Marine Le Pen coming in second with 21.5 percent.
However, the poll also shows hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon gaining in voter support, and each within striking range of upsetting one or both of the current frontrunners.
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday, before the deadly attack on the Champs Elysees, for which the Islamic State group has claimed responsibility. And at least one observer, President Trump, has predicted the attack with undoubtedly shape the outcome of Sunday's vote.
"Another terrorist attack in Paris," Trump tweeted Thursday afternoon. "The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!"
In an interview with The Associated Press, Trump says he is not explicitly endorsing Le Pen. But he says he believes she will be helped by the attack that left a Paris police officer dead, because she's the candidate who is "strongest on borders, and she's the strongest on what's been going on in France."
Trump's opinion only help confirm the view of both pundits and the international press who have said throughout the race that the candidate who comes closest to the US president's world view is Le Pen, of the National Front.
Led for years by Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the National Front has a history of anti-Semitism and xenophobia. The younger Le Pen is credited with softening the party's stark image -- going so far as expelling her father from the party for his extreme statements -- it continues to be view with skepticism by a majority of French voters.
A poll conducted last year by the Pew Research Center found only 23 percent of French citizens had a favorable opinion of the National Front.
But the same poll, conducted in July, just ahead of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominating conventions, provided insights in where supporters of the National Front stood on immigration, the Muslim community and globalization -- all subjects the figured significantly in the remarkable rise of Donald Trump, a political neophyte, in the U.S.
The Pew Center found support for the National Front is somewhat stronger among men, the less educated, and Catholics – though even among these groups, support is limited.
In 2016, support stood at 28 percent among men, 26 percent among those with no college degree and 27 percent among self-identified Roman Catholics.